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Automakers Go Electric, Even If Gas Is Cheap
- desireco42 11y agoThis is how it should be, whatever is influencing prices now will pass, this is the future.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- Donwangugi 11y agoSidenote: Is there a hackernews or lobsters for automotive technology?
- embro 11y agoinsideevs is a decent place to get the news for anything electric.
- sremani 11y agoI like insideevs, but the loading times, page design ux are crazy (with lot of ads and analytics) and you do have more forum participation, but for clear content hybridcars(dot)com, is the a much much better place asthetically, but participation is a bit muted, but the content quality is great.
- csours 11y agoLobsters?
- Gravityloss 11y agohttp://www.greencarcongress.com/ http://www.greencarcongress.com/ It's quite technical, but the content is good.
- Donwangugi 11y agoThank you! Also anything to look at about driver less technology as well? These seem focused on green energy.
- danhak 11y agoTesla has proven that electric cars can be fundamentally superior to their ICE counterparts in nearly all respects, except for cost (for now) and the speed to refuel (which is made moot by the convenience of refueling from home if you have garage access). The trend toward EVs despite low gas prices should be no more baffling than the trend toward smartphones despite low flip-phone prices.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoFinal nail in the coffin will be ride sharing services. You won't care as a consumer who just wants a ride, and businesses will purchase electric cars because it makes business sense.
- ameen 11y agoI'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. We need to think about the environment as a whole. I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers.
- thaumasiotes 11y ago> We need to think about the environment as a whole. Actually, I'm not so sure about this. It's easy to see the case for "a little more pollution, but far away" over "a little less pollution, constantly hanging over your head".
- toomuchtodo 11y ago> I'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? An electric car has no more than 50 moving parts. For the powertrain, you'd only ever need to swap the battery pack or the electric motor (weighs about 70lbs). Electric vehicles by their nature embody longevity. > Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. No. > We need to think about the environment as a whole. Yes. Electric vehicles are only one part of the mobility equation. > I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers. You're going to cover every American suburb with electric mass transit? If so, the cheapest way to do so is with electrified self-driving vehicles.
- klipt 11y ago> “The government is regulating what automakers have to produce to meet new standards, but it isn’t what consumers want to buy,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst with the firm Autotrader. Why doesn't the fed just use higher taxes on gas to disincentivize gas guzzlers, and let the market take care of the rest? US gas prices are ridiculously low compared to most of the developed world.
- jfoutz 11y agoa long time ago the us decided to tax gas on volume rather than price. if gas is $1 a gallon, the tax is $0.25. if it's $4, the tax is still $0.25. It would be difficult to impose a new gas tax, even more difficult to impose a price based tax. I think a lot of the oddity in regulation (and taxes) is those are fights that were won. It's not exactly sane, but sometimes you have to go with what's achievable over what's right. And then hope the net effect pushes behavior in the direction you wanted.
- aembleton 11y agoYou don't want a price based tax as that amplifies the fluctuation in the oil price. A volume based tax will help to stabilise the pump price.
- patmcguire 11y agoA sneaky way would be to set them by percentage when gas was low such that it lowers taxes at the moment, but creates higher taxes on average through the typical boom/bust cycle of gas.
- jseliger 11y agoWhy doesn't the fed just use higher taxes on gas to disincentivize gas guzzlers, and let the market take care of the rest? Pigouvian taxes on high-carbon fuels are ridiculously unpopular. The median voter (http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Rational-Voter-Democracies-Policies/dp/0691138737 http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Rational-Voter-Democracies-Polici...) does not perceive the TCO of cars, the fuel supply chain, and parking spaces (http://www.amazon.com/High-Cost-Free-Parking-Updated/dp/193236496X http://www.amazon.com/High-Cost-Free-Parking-Updated/dp/1932...). So CAFE standards and other kinda crappy, second- and third-best workarounds get used instead.
- pstrateman 11y agoFederal and State governments are literally paying people to buy plug-in electric vehicles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States#Government_support https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_t...
- vvanders 11y agoThis is a good thing. We should be incentivising move towards clean energy rather than letting things with hidden costs continue.
- forgetsusername 11y agoSure, everyone loves subsidies when they are the ones getting them. Having the government pick winners is a losing proposition. The correct solution is to properly price the externalities of ICEs, then let the market sort it out.
- vvanders 11y agoI agree carbon tax is the right way to go, although politically it might be difficult(see other thread here). I'd rather have something(subsidies) than nothing at all.
- rhino369 11y agoMaybe it was a good thing to prove the viability of electric cars, but I find it hard to believe 5-7k a car is best use of green energy spending. And that's a car that still is mostly just running on coal or natural gas because that is what are grid is made out of.
- barney54 11y agoWhy do you assume electric cars and batteries have no hidden costs? You don't see these costs when you see electric cars, but the cost are real: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150402-the-worst-place-on-earth http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150402-the-worst-place-on-...
- jfoutz 11y agoIt was very kind of Saudi Arabia to allow us to develop so much oil extraction technology at $100 and now teach us how to use that new technology profitably at $35. I'm not exactly a fan of fracking and tar sand extraction, but it is quite an achievement.
- dilemma 11y agoMove to electric vehicles and produce the electricity needed by burning fossil fuel in large scale regional plants with higher efficiency, where it is also economic to invest in filter systems to reduce pollution.
- oppositelock 11y agoCars are going to get much more expensive with these fuel efficiency mandates and the affluent will drive electrics, while everyone else will drive old cars. We have ever increasing crashworthiness requirements, which make cars heavier, which increases car weight. We have a ratcheting fuel efficiency mandate. The convergence of these two pushes for lighter, more crashworthy cars, which means expensive materials. Electric cars may be price competitive very soon as prices for batteries fall, and as prices for gasoline cars increase. However, these regulations, while well meaning, will be counter-productive. People simply can't afford new cars anymore and are driving old cars much longer. We have a lot of 1990's engines out there in fairly reliable cars, and these emit far more pollution than a modern car, nevermind the fuel efficiency.
- erikpukinskis 11y agoDoubtful. The price per mile to rent a self driving electric will be lower than the cost per mile for gasoline in fairly short order.
- barney54 11y agoPop Quiz: Did sales of electric cars grow or decrease in 2015 compared to 2014. Answer: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ What about sales of ICEs? http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-sales-hit-alltime-high-in-2015-what-about-2016 http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-sales-hit-all... So if overall car sales are up by EV sales are down, tell me why we are so bullish on EVs?
- brownbat 11y agoElectric cars trade pump prices for grid prices. In the long run, that should make sense whether there's an oil glut or not, since oil should affect prices in both columns.[0] Hybrids trade pump prices for cost of additional (non-oil-based) components. That's going to be a better trade when pump prices are high. It's more contingent. So... low oil prices could mean we should see more electrics, but fewer hybrids. [0] Should, hasn't yet, I don't know why. So far lower oil costs are reflected in transportation fuel, but not in household electricity costs.[1] Maybe because the grid just takes a really long time to shift its energy portfolio? Maybe I'm just completely wrong... [1] http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_02262015_csis.pdf http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_0226201... : slide 11. [2] Yes, embedded footnotes. And unreferenced footnotes. Madness.
- greenyoda 11y ago"So far lower oil costs are reflected in transportation fuel, but not in household electricity costs." In 2014, petroleum only accounted for 1% of US electricity generation, so the price of oil isn't likely to have much of an effect on the price of electricity: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
- rokhayakebe 11y agoSomething else: electric everything and using less oil is the only way out of political instability in some parts of the world.
- intopieces 11y agoNow if the government would just raise the fuel tax, we'd really be in business. Start making up for the drop in prices and incentivize electric vehicles on the consumer side as well.
- jfoster 11y agoWouldn't that risk turning a government anti-EV, since they would be addicted to the revenue from fuel?
- intopieces 11y agoThis is a good point. It's important to remember, though, that local and state governments think in the short term. In the short term, gas vehicles are going to be around for a long time. The average age of cars on U.S. roads is at a record 11.5 years, according to research firm IHS Automotive.[0] That is to say, if 2015 were the last year anyone could buy a gasoline-fueled car, we'd be looking at 2027 for that last batch to age out. [0]http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-average-car-age-20150729-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-average-c...
- bradley_long 11y agoGas and oil will not be cheap forever. Now it goes down but when investors or governments want to rise its price, it can be easily changed. Just make some "noises" or "predictions" and the price will be affected. Besides, electric cars have zero road emission. Drivers will not see the exhaust emissions by themselves. Electric cars shifted the emissions to the power plant so drivers will have less feelings about their contribution to global warming.
- erikpukinskis 11y agoIt's not just shifting emissions, those emissions are decreased, significantly in places like California with lots of non-carbon electricity, and almost entirely eliminated in places like Norway which have a surplus of clean energy. And there is a clear path to eliminating the remaining emissions, unlike in an internal combustion vehicle.
- danhak 11y ago> Electric cars shifted the emissions to the power plant so drivers will have less feelings about their contribution to global warming. Even the filthiest conventional power plants are significantly more efficient than the internal combustion engine and emit fewer greenhouse gasses. Aside from that, the electric grid is becoming cleaner by the month which means EVs automatically become cleaner as we transition to renewables and clean generation. Gasoline engines never become cleaner. That's the main sustainability argument for EVs: de-coupling transportation from oil or any particular fuel, thereby enabling a clear path as the grid continues to transition to renewables.
- Avshalom 11y agoLet's not discount the value of shifting the emissions though. Look at the air quality in major cities and the health effects that has on the billions of urban residents.yes the majority of that might not be from cars but any electric whatsit give us the ability to move the pollution and a world where the emissions are all just moved away from the people is still a better world.
- Shivetya 11y agoOther than, well we are seeing the results of two to as many of five years of the pipeline coming out finally. It isn't like they can plan for cheap gas. GM would know this best with the second generation Volt landing when gas prices were already on their way down. The real opportunity here isn't for the automakers, it is for the Congress to change the law with regards to fuel taxes so as to set a floor price on fuel to encourage the shift to more economical vehicles; not necessarily full ev. A tax system could be set to provide a floor and a ceiling - meaning if the product price got to high the tax would decrease a bit to compensate Still, what did you expect from the big companies in the face of the fleet mileage requirements? You cannot do that without at least hybridization. Finally, with GM, did anyone really expect them to cede the everyday car buyer market when it came to electrics. GM even has the production capacity to make the cars when people want them