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I agree with your facts but disagree with your assessment. I believe that the drop in clean energy prices is what drove the crash in oil prices. The reason the
by krschultz 11y ago
I agree with your facts but disagree with your assessment. I believe that the drop in clean energy prices is what drove the crash in oil prices.
The reason the Saudis are trying to drive the frackers out of business is because the Saudis no longer believe that we're going to get all the oil out of the ground before clean energy takes over. Previously they were fine cutting their own production in order to maintain a particular price because they were certain that eventually ALL of the oil in Saudi Arabia would get sold on the global market. If that took 100 years, that actually was even better for them. If you believed in peak oil, then being the last one standing with reserves actually would be awesome.
With clean energy beating projections it looks like we're not going to burn every drop of oil in the Earth. Given that, the Saudis are no longer patient. If they hold back their reserves to maintain a particular price it's very possible we'll get off oil before we run out of oil. Thus the Saudis would have left money on the table if they didn't shift strategy.
It seems like their new strategy is to extract every dollar they can for their oil reserves. In the short term that means fighting off the frackers, but the broader picture looks like a race to the bottom for all oil producers.
The good news is I don't think we're going to burn all the oil on Earth. The bad news is low oil will slow down the rollout of clean energy because it makes ROI worse.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoI don't agree that renewables are the reason for HOS's pumping, but I do agree its because they want to extract every dollar they can from what oil they'll still be able to sell. I'd say electric vehicles reaching maturity is a far bigger concern to them then renewables.
- barney54 11y agoWhere is the evidence that renewables have driven the crash in oil prices? There is only a tiny bit of competition between renewables and oil. In the U.S. less than 1% of electricity is generated from oil. Oil is used as a transportation fuel and electric vehicle sales have stagnated. (few EVs were sold in 2015 than in 2014 in the U.S. http://insideevs.com/december-2015-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/ http://insideevs.com/december-2015-plug-electric-vehicle-sal...)
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- ars 11y ago> The bad news is low oil will slow down the rollout of clean energy because it makes ROI worse. I completely disagree. I think it will speed it up! One of the largest expenses for clear energy is ... energy! To make the devices, mine the metal, manufacture, ship etc. So when oil prices are low is the best time to make as much as possible, since your expenses are low. Then when prices go back up you have some equipment already installed and making you money.