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Sell everything; this looks very much like 2008 [pdf]
- vincent_s 11y ago“My bullet point themes into 2016 are (remain): o bearish China o bearish global commodities (hards, softs, fluids). And more specifically . . . o bearish oil (target $26, then clear risk of $16) o CBs (mostly everywhere) will ease more o The world has far too much debt to be able to grow well – global output gap widens o Emerging market majors (outside India & Eastern Europe) all remain sells o Automation on its way to destroy 30-50% of all jobs in developed world o Currency war / mercantilism And my new bullet point themes: Andrew Roberts My old credit crunch mantra makes a comeback: Return of capital, not return on capital European Rates Weekly | 8 January 2016 Page 3 o Global disinflation risks turning into global deflation in 2016 o Everyone thinks ‘goldilocks’. We thought this strongly for >2 years (on our liquidity theme) but now worry about equities/credit, both huge, multi-year, well held positions. Negative returns in 2016 are probable, though without a recession they should be manageable, think -10-20%, rather than a rout o If we see weaker ‘risk on’ products, the last safe ‘high yielder’ is the EMU periphery. Our new 0.75% 10y BTP target could prove too high a yield o Risks to 0.16% new 10y bund target are on the downside, not upside o Main risk comes from oil. A plunge sub $20 would aid consumption”