I'm all for people having fun. I'm also all for people really understanding their odds. In my experience, 'pick a dime' works better than 'struck by a meteori

I'm all for people having fun. I'm also all for people really understanding their odds. In my experience, 'pick a dime' works better than 'struck by a meteorite' in the limited time I've used the example. It seems that people around me have a harder time grasping the wide gulf between abstract stuff like "struck by lightning" vs "10 times as likely to be struck by a meteorite", and something they can measure/visualize and break down in to pieces. The driving example is exactly the same as saying "put 250M dimes in a big pot, then pick the exact one randomly". However, restating the problem, in a way that breaks down naturally into individual units that people can grasp, can help prevent it from becoming too abstract.