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> Only microscopically different odds than buying a ticket. If that were the case, then approximately one winning ticket would blow into someone's hand every w
by philh 11y ago
> Only microscopically different odds than buying a ticket.
If that were the case, then approximately one winning ticket would blow into someone's hand every week. Alternatively, literally no one ever would have bought a winning ticket.
(I'm guessing here that nobody has ever won by having the winning ticket blow into their hand. Correct me if I'm wrong.)
Buying a winning ticket is incredibly unlikely, and having the winning ticket blow into your hand is incredibly unlikely. But the difference between these two is very large.
- JoeAltmaier 11y agoBoth are less than one in 100M. Indistinguishable from where I stand.
- TeMPOraL 11y agoA handy random statistic from https://what-if.xkcd.com/19/ https://what-if.xkcd.com/19/ for anchoring the discussion: "Astronomer Alan Harris calculates that a person’s lifetime odds of death from a comet or meteorite impact are about 1 in 700,000."