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> This fact alone strongly implies that prices will always inherently have an upward bias; it's actually quite difficult to conclude otherwise. Eventually it c
by 6502nerdface 11y ago
> This fact alone strongly implies that prices will always inherently have an upward bias; it's actually quite difficult to conclude otherwise.
Eventually it can get corrected, though, right? But as a sharp dislocation when fundamental reality percolates through as a wave of down valuations and shutterings, I suppose.
On this view, you'd want to short-sell the whole VC market if you could. This isn't possible directly, but maybe there's an indirect way? I'm reminded of how people sometimes place directional bets on "the hedge fund industry" as a whole by taking long or short positions on a basket of publicly traded companies that provide back-office and accounting services to a large percentage of hedge funds (e.g., NASDAQ:ADVS, NASDAQ:SSNC), and whose fortunes therefore rise and fall with the hedge fund industry's -- maybe one could construct some indirect play like that for VCs?
- theseatoms 11y agoMaybe you could find a SF regional REIT to short? Though that's a hop, skip, and a jump removed from your investment thesis.