5 ms·
The article says they've raised $115 million to deliver in 4 cities. The populations of those cities are: San Francisco: 837,442 New York City: 8,400,000 Sea
by MichaelBurge 11y ago
The article says they've raised $115 million to deliver in 4 cities. The populations of those cities are:
San Francisco: 837,442
New York City: 8,400,000
Seattle: 652,405
Greater Los Angeles: 3,800,000
For a total of 13.6 million people, or $8.45 per person.
I looked at one example by finding an SF zip code, and found they were charging $10.95 for 650 calories(if you assume 2000 calories, you might say they're looking to raise $10.95 at a $33.69 daily food valuation). It's also 59 calories per dollar:
https://munchery.com/menus/sf/#/0/dinner/bbq-pork-with-rice-1/info https://munchery.com/menus/sf/#/0/dinner/bbq-pork-with-rice-...
I checked a couple other zip codes, and they do seem consistent with $30-$34/day in food 'valuation' by calories.
Looking at San Francisco, it looks like people spend an average of $3,937 to buy 48% of their away-from-home food(2000 * 0.48 * 365 / 3937 = 89 calories per dollar), and $4,215 on 52% of their at-home food(90 calories per dollar)
http://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/ConsumerExpenditures_SanFrancisco.htm http://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/ConsumerExpendi...
So their food is about 50% more expensive than the average in the region, per calorie. If you assume people's expenditures rise with their income exactly, and that the average income in San Francisco was $92,780 from that same link, then you'd expect them to be targeting people who make 1.5 * $92,780 = $139,170 which is the 74th percentile in San Francisco. Applying this uniformly reduces the 13.6 million audience to 3.264 million(edit: Not sure you can apply a percentile like that).
I'm not sure what their markup is, but if you assume it's the 50% rather than them simply choosing more expensive restaurants, then they need to generate $3x in sales to generate $x in revenue. So $115 million / 3.264 million = $35.23/person * 3 = $105.70/per person on average to make revenue equal to their investment. If you assume only 10% of its target audience ends up using Munchery, then this rises to $1057/person, or about 96 overpriced meals. They appear to outsource all the actual work to restaurants, but they might get a bulk discount. Maybe that's eaten up by their operations.
You could reduce this by a factor of f by assuming that the valuation was some fixed multiple f of their valuation. I've heard 3 is common for f, and probably these are preferred stock so the multiple might be higher.
I don't know - it seems like the average yuppie would have to buy way more overpriced delivery Chinese food than I expect is reasonable for their business to make sense. My historical credit card statements show about $6/day on all my food, compared to their 'valuation' of $33.69.
I'm not sure I understand where the investor money's coming from though: It's traditionally hard to get money for a restaurant(loans require higher down payments, etc.) since they tend to lose money. Buffets tend to be more efficient than sit-down restaurants like they indicate here, and I've also seen some restaurants hire delivery staff. If they sold it to investors as "We want to set up a couple buffets three times as big as average with some delivery staff instead of a sit-down area", I can't see them actually raising the money. (The 3x comes from me looking at a local buffet in Portland, which was 11,000 square feet, and comparing it to the 30,000 one mentioned in the article. Admittedly theirs probably doesn't have any sit-down room).
- prplhaz4 11y agoYour San Francisco Bay Area population is way off - I'm guessing you actually mean San Francisco proper (not the entire SF Bay Area). Checking my former zip codes it does not seem to extend out into the East Bay yet.
- MichaelBurge 11y agoI think you're right. My method for that was to punch into Google 'San Francisco Bay Area population' and write down the number that came up. 'San Francisco population' gives the same number, so I guess it was just the city. It's a good idea to try individual zip codes: It seems like you could get more accurate population data by trying all the possible zip codes and summing the associated census data.
- triangleman 11y agoThe Census actually measures city sizes in terms of "Metropolitan Statistical Areas" or MSA's. Here are the populations for the areas in question: SF-Oakland-Hayward MSA: 4,516,276 New York SA: 13,038,826 (according to [1]) Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue MSA: 3,671,478 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA: 12,944,801 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_statistical_areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_statistical_areas
- waterlesscloud 11y agoAnd depending on how you define Greater Los Angeles, the population is 2-5 times 3.8 million (which is just the city proper's population).
- geoelectric 11y agoThey do extend to south san jose, so I assume they cover the entire 101->El Camino->280 corridor from SF down to SJ.
- askafriend 11y agoI know this is just rough back of the napkin analysis but I absolutely loved reading it. Though rough, I think this type of exercise is a valuable way to think about and try to understand a business. Thanks for writing it down!