This is an interesting mathematical analysis but I am not sure how predictive it really is. It implies that the longer a country has survived, the more likely i

This is an interesting mathematical analysis but I am not sure how predictive it really is. It implies that the longer a country has survived, the more likely it is to continue surviving (because 10% of a larger number is a larger number.) This does not hold true for some things, like people. The odds of a 100-year-old person dying before reaching age 110 are more than 10%, and the odds of a 10-year-old person dying before reaching age 11 are less than 10%. This is due to age-dependent-factors such as shortened telomeres and accumulated structural damage. It is possible that countries similarly have age-dependent factors which affect the odds of survival, either positively or negatively. I am not a statistician; I could be completely wrong. Apparently this is a whole debate: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Doomsday_argument http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Doomsday_argument