11 ms·
What's stopping us from applying this math to other things? Like, every baby at the 1 minute mark of their life. Shouldn't that mean that ~10% of all babies bor
by grraaaaahhh 11y ago
What's stopping us from applying this math to other things? Like, every baby at the 1 minute mark of their life. Shouldn't that mean that ~10% of all babies born dies within a minute and a half?
We can take this to extremes. At the 1 minute mark we have a 99% change of being in the latter 99% of their life (and thus a 99% chance of dying 99 minutes later). It's amazing how many of them beat these odds.
- Houshalter 11y agoIt's an uninformative prior (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability#Uninformative_priors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability#Uninformativ...). Meaning it's the best estimate you can make, if you don't have any additional information about the problem. Obviously we have a lot of additional information on human lifespans, which allows us to build a more accurate probability distribution. Also see my comment above.
- smellf 11y agoNope, your example would be true if we didn't know how long babies lived, and we were observing a baby who was a minute and a half old.