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Don't worry about it or listen to the HN doom-sayers, they like to exaggerate and self-aggrandize. Broadly -- software, the web, social products, automation, o

Don't worry about it or listen to the HN doom-sayers, they like to exaggerate and self-aggrandize. Broadly -- software, the web, social products, automation, or advertising aren't going anywhere in the next two years. These are all driven by development and require developers. High competition markets might slow leading to not getting a massive out of school offer. But you'll get offers if you're looking. Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. You'll be better calibrated for the ups and downs and you are far more resilient and flexible. I graduated in 2009, when there were no jobs and it was awful. I slowly climbed my way to Google and on into an exciting future.

pfarnsworth 11y ago
You really have no idea. 2009 was mild for SV. The dotcom bust per-capita was worse than the autoindustry layoffs in the 80s. I lived through it. It was very hard, and some people I know were out of jobs for 2 years. Our company had half a dozen layoffs in 12 months and we shrank by 50%. If 2016 is half of what 2001 was, then most new grads won't get jobs.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  No I do have an idea, and I think you'd be better off not making silly assumptions. I was unemployed and living in my car for 18 months in SV, because I wasn't yet tech-trained in 2009. If you were an engineer casting your cold eye on the world, I'm sure you turned your nose up at the millions of us who were't in tech then. Or maybe we just didn't count us as real people.
  - pfarnsworth 11y ago
    Your past experiences are truly irrelevant to the point you made and what I was responding to. And your ad hominem attacks are misplaced as well. You have admitted you didn't go through the 2001 bust, so you, by definition, have no idea what it was like. Dismissing talk of 2016 being a bad year as doom-saying, exaggerating or self-aggrandizing clearly shows you have no idea how bad it can get for the industry as a whole. I don't care if you were unemployed and living in a car for 18 months in 2009/2010, because it's irrelevant to the point. There are plenty of people unemployed and living in cars even during the dotcom boom. But 2009/2010 weren't anything compared to the depths of the dotcom bust.
    - dang 11y ago
      The user you're replying to was too aggressive in their comment, but you're doing that as well. Please just be nice when commenting here.
      - pfarnsworth 11y ago
        No, I wasn't too aggressive at all. I used very unaggressive words, on purpose in fact. What's worse than two people disagreeing is some nanny police or censorship mod who is overly policing every single word used. Please don't turn HN into that kind of forum.
        dang 11y ago
        It sounds like I misread you.
- cageface 11y ago
  I was lucky enough to be in a strong company for the 2000 bust but I remember we'd get at least 50 very qualified applications for every open position, plus another stack of far more desperate and less qualified people. It didn't really start to get better until 2003-2004. 2008-2009 wasn't anywhere near as bad for the overall tech job market.
w1ntermute 11y ago
That's easy for you to say now that you're one of the Google bourgeoisie, financially protected and coddled by its search monopoly. The vast majority of developers will never be so fortunate.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  Maybe... but my recovery started far before Google. There will be downturns, but there will be work. You might not get a new yacht, but you'll be able to feed your family.
bkokoszka 11y ago
> Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. I don't think this is true. There's one study that found that students who graduate into a recession have worse earnings even long after the recession has ended: http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html Eventually the effect wears off, but there's no evidence of a long-term benefit to graduating into a bad economy.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  I'm probably bias since most of my joy has come from recovering from such a low point. There is almost anywhere to go from the bottom -- the top can leave you with long periods missing better days.

pfarnsworth 11y ago

You really have no idea. 2009 was mild for SV. The dotcom bust per-capita was worse than the autoindustry layoffs in the 80s. I lived through it. It was very hard, and some people I know were out of jobs for 2 years. Our company had half a dozen layoffs in 12 months and we shrank by 50%. If 2016 is half of what 2001 was, then most new grads won't get jobs.

tsunamifury 11y ago
No I do have an idea, and I think you'd be better off not making silly assumptions. I was unemployed and living in my car for 18 months in SV, because I wasn't yet tech-trained in 2009. If you were an engineer casting your cold eye on the world, I'm sure you turned your nose up at the millions of us who were't in tech then. Or maybe we just didn't count us as real people.
- pfarnsworth 11y ago
  Your past experiences are truly irrelevant to the point you made and what I was responding to. And your ad hominem attacks are misplaced as well. You have admitted you didn't go through the 2001 bust, so you, by definition, have no idea what it was like. Dismissing talk of 2016 being a bad year as doom-saying, exaggerating or self-aggrandizing clearly shows you have no idea how bad it can get for the industry as a whole. I don't care if you were unemployed and living in a car for 18 months in 2009/2010, because it's irrelevant to the point. There are plenty of people unemployed and living in cars even during the dotcom boom. But 2009/2010 weren't anything compared to the depths of the dotcom bust.
  - dang 11y ago
    The user you're replying to was too aggressive in their comment, but you're doing that as well. Please just be nice when commenting here.
    - pfarnsworth 11y ago
      No, I wasn't too aggressive at all. I used very unaggressive words, on purpose in fact. What's worse than two people disagreeing is some nanny police or censorship mod who is overly policing every single word used. Please don't turn HN into that kind of forum.
      - dang 11y ago
        It sounds like I misread you.
cageface 11y ago
I was lucky enough to be in a strong company for the 2000 bust but I remember we'd get at least 50 very qualified applications for every open position, plus another stack of far more desperate and less qualified people. It didn't really start to get better until 2003-2004. 2008-2009 wasn't anywhere near as bad for the overall tech job market.

w1ntermute 11y ago

That's easy for you to say now that you're one of the Google bourgeoisie, financially protected and coddled by its search monopoly. The vast majority of developers will never be so fortunate.

tsunamifury 11y ago
Maybe... but my recovery started far before Google. There will be downturns, but there will be work. You might not get a new yacht, but you'll be able to feed your family.

bkokoszka 11y ago

> Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. I don't think this is true. There's one study that found that students who graduate into a recession have worse earnings even long after the recession has ended: http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html Eventually the effect wears off, but there's no evidence of a long-term benefit to graduating into a bad economy.

tsunamifury 11y ago
I'm probably bias since most of my joy has come from recovering from such a low point. There is almost anywhere to go from the bottom -- the top can leave you with long periods missing better days.