6 ms·

Do you think this will seriously affect job opportunities for devs? I'm an almost-grad who switched from electrical engineering because the jobs were abysmal, a

by fratlas 11y ago

Do you think this will seriously affect job opportunities for devs? I'm an almost-grad who switched from electrical engineering because the jobs were abysmal, and the bad luck seems to be following me :-)

w1ntermute 11y ago
The fact that you know about this problem already puts you far ahead of all the people who are still unaware. The best option (if you're not a senior) is to do a summer internship, which leads to a full-time offer. The next best is to get interviews through personal referrals. If all else fails, whiteboard like crazy and do your homework on the companies you're applying to, which will be a lot (hundreds).
- fratlas 11y ago
  I just assumed most devs would be worried about the potential affects of the bubble. Currently typing this from my summer intership, so your comment has given me so hope, thank you!
tsunamifury 11y ago
Don't worry about it or listen to the HN doom-sayers, they like to exaggerate and self-aggrandize. Broadly -- software, the web, social products, automation, or advertising aren't going anywhere in the next two years. These are all driven by development and require developers. High competition markets might slow leading to not getting a massive out of school offer. But you'll get offers if you're looking. Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. You'll be better calibrated for the ups and downs and you are far more resilient and flexible. I graduated in 2009, when there were no jobs and it was awful. I slowly climbed my way to Google and on into an exciting future.
- pfarnsworth 11y ago
  You really have no idea. 2009 was mild for SV. The dotcom bust per-capita was worse than the autoindustry layoffs in the 80s. I lived through it. It was very hard, and some people I know were out of jobs for 2 years. Our company had half a dozen layoffs in 12 months and we shrank by 50%. If 2016 is half of what 2001 was, then most new grads won't get jobs.
  - tsunamifury 11y ago
    No I do have an idea, and I think you'd be better off not making silly assumptions. I was unemployed and living in my car for 18 months in SV, because I wasn't yet tech-trained in 2009. If you were an engineer casting your cold eye on the world, I'm sure you turned your nose up at the millions of us who were't in tech then. Or maybe we just didn't count us as real people.
    - pfarnsworth 11y ago
      Your past experiences are truly irrelevant to the point you made and what I was responding to. And your ad hominem attacks are misplaced as well. You have admitted you didn't go through the 2001 bust, so you, by definition, have no idea what it was like. Dismissing talk of 2016 being a bad year as doom-saying, exaggerating or self-aggrandizing clearly shows you have no idea how bad it can get for the industry as a whole. I don't care if you were unemployed and living in a car for 18 months in 2009/2010, because it's irrelevant to the point. There are plenty of people unemployed and living in cars even during the dotcom boom. But 2009/2010 weren't anything compared to the depths of the dotcom bust.
      - dang 11y ago
        The user you're replying to was too aggressive in their comment, but you're doing that as well. Please just be nice when commenting here.
        pfarnsworth 11y ago
        No, I wasn't too aggressive at all. I used very unaggressive words, on purpose in fact. What's worse than two people disagreeing is some nanny police or censorship mod who is overly policing every single word used. Please don't turn HN into that kind of forum.
- w1ntermute 11y ago
  That's easy for you to say now that you're one of the Google bourgeoisie, financially protected and coddled by its search monopoly. The vast majority of developers will never be so fortunate.
  - tsunamifury 11y ago
    Maybe... but my recovery started far before Google. There will be downturns, but there will be work. You might not get a new yacht, but you'll be able to feed your family.
- bkokoszka 11y ago
  > Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. I don't think this is true. There's one study that found that students who graduate into a recession have worse earnings even long after the recession has ended: http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html Eventually the effect wears off, but there's no evidence of a long-term benefit to graduating into a bad economy.
  - tsunamifury 11y ago
    I'm probably bias since most of my joy has come from recovering from such a low point. There is almost anywhere to go from the bottom -- the top can leave you with long periods missing better days.
joeax 11y ago
I'm a software engineer that's lived through the dotcom crash and the great recession. I can tell you the dotcom crash was much more devastating for the tech community since we were at the center of it. There will always be a demand for software engineers, just keep in mind though that this demand is cyclical and during down years you have less leverage in salary negotiations and perks on the job tend to be taken away. If you are a good developer though you'll have little to worry about.
- IndianAstronaut 11y ago
  Also, hopefully as wel paid devs, people have a good savings buffer and no debt.
  - bgia 11y ago
    except if they bought a $1M house in SV
    - hkmurakami 11y ago
      or worse yet, a $1M condo in SOMA.
- TwoBit 11y ago
  I worked for Electronic Arts during the dot com crash, and EA's value was even or increasing through that peroid. Why? Because they made an actual product, with their own money.
potatolicious 11y ago
I suppose that depends on your definition of "seriously". There is a general cooling off, not a collapse. There aren't many companies going under entirely, which is distinctly unlike the first dotcom bubble where after the pop the ground was littered with the corpses of companies. IMO what we're likely to see is a slowdown in early-stage startup hiring. Series-A and B funding is already harder to come by, and so execs will be more conservative about burn rate, including on payroll. Unicorns will continue to hire aggressively, but their equity will look worse and worse as their valuations get cut or they get murdered in the aftermath of their own IPO. I think we will continue to see major unicorns have their valuations slashed, and we will continue to see tech stocks struggle in the public markets. But this will impact employee compensation more than it will impact overall demand for new hires. What this probably will mean is that offers from unicorns will be less attractive next to offers from BigTechCo, but ultimately we're still talking about offers in the top 10% of the entire USA, so it's hardly a cause for panic. And of course the juggernauts of AmaGooFaceSoft and co. will continue to hire like crazy. So yeah, the job market will get a bit softer, so you might be facing tougher competition, but it's not exactly doom and gloom. It's certainly still a better outlook than what you were facing in electrical engineering.
- fratlas 11y ago
  I'm based in Australia, only half considering making the move to the US if I get an offer from the big 5. I guess I'm only worried if this would have an affect on the amount of positions available from mid sized companies (I've filled my quota of startup experience through internships).
blackguardx 11y ago
I'm an electrical engineer and I don't think the job market is that bad. Not as good as software, but better than other engineering disciplines.
pkaye 11y ago
Regarding the ee jobs, I've seen quite a few of them exported overseas over the years to places like Taiwan and China. Usually the software side is considered "the secret sauce" and kept close to HQ. I've seen more than my share of experienced ee folks telling me they wished they chose software as the focus. But it is always hard to predict in the game of musical chairs what the next winner or loser will be. You try to stay a broad focus as a problem solver and learn to adapt.
jonesb6 11y ago
I won't play oracle here. But I would like to point out that there are a number of skill sets you yourself can develop over the next year to make you more resilient to hiring trends (and depressions). Networking. Sales. Domain knowledge. As an undergrad myself, I feel most of my peers expect a job to be given to them as soon as they graduate. For some this will be true, for many it will not. I feel that this is a terrible mindset and will cause a lot of pain for people in our age group. So networking, as in know people, know companies, you don't have to be an extreme extrovert but put yourself out their and actively try to meet and build relationships with people in the industry. Sales, as in selling yourself as the product. Practice interviews, enunciation, phone conversations, whatever you have to do. If you come across as an A-player/personality you are much more likely to be hired. Domain knowledge, get a basic understanding of what's in use today, what probably will be in use tomorrow, and build an expertise in it. It requires a lot of time but it will clearly distinguish you from those who don't bother doing so. While many companies prioritize hires that can learn quickly, don't forget the very real business need of someone who can jump in and run with the team immediately. If you have this there will always be a place for you at some company, you would only need to find one with a real immediate need, then, "oh hey I can do that for you"..
- RobertDeNiro 11y ago
  Networking seems to be the hardest for me and I imagine others as well. I've been out of college for two years now and I have no idea how to meet new people.
  - jedberg 11y ago
    Go to meet ups. Go to conferences. If you're short on cash, go to where a conference is being held and hang out in the halls chatting people up. Maybe security will kick you out, maybe they won't. Maybe they aren't even checking who is going into the BOF sessions at night. Go that one year old's birthday party you were invited to being thrown by that older coworker of yours that you kinda know. Maybe you'll meet an interesting person who turns out to be your boss in ten years. There's lots of ways to meet people, it's just not going to get thrown on your lap anymore. You gotta go out and find it.
madengr 11y ago
Switched from EE since jobs were abysmal; you mean the lack of jobs? But hey, we need more STEM!
- fratlas 11y ago
  Well going in to university the EE job opportunities were strong, but they've steadily gotten worse over the years in the US, and Australian power companies have had massive layoffs, reducing grad intake.

by fratlas 11y ago

w1ntermute 11y ago

The fact that you know about this problem already puts you far ahead of all the people who are still unaware. The best option (if you're not a senior) is to do a summer internship, which leads to a full-time offer. The next best is to get interviews through personal referrals. If all else fails, whiteboard like crazy and do your homework on the companies you're applying to, which will be a lot (hundreds).

fratlas 11y ago
I just assumed most devs would be worried about the potential affects of the bubble. Currently typing this from my summer intership, so your comment has given me so hope, thank you!

tsunamifury 11y ago

Don't worry about it or listen to the HN doom-sayers, they like to exaggerate and self-aggrandize. Broadly -- software, the web, social products, automation, or advertising aren't going anywhere in the next two years. These are all driven by development and require developers. High competition markets might slow leading to not getting a massive out of school offer. But you'll get offers if you're looking. Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. You'll be better calibrated for the ups and downs and you are far more resilient and flexible. I graduated in 2009, when there were no jobs and it was awful. I slowly climbed my way to Google and on into an exciting future.

pfarnsworth 11y ago
You really have no idea. 2009 was mild for SV. The dotcom bust per-capita was worse than the autoindustry layoffs in the 80s. I lived through it. It was very hard, and some people I know were out of jobs for 2 years. Our company had half a dozen layoffs in 12 months and we shrank by 50%. If 2016 is half of what 2001 was, then most new grads won't get jobs.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  No I do have an idea, and I think you'd be better off not making silly assumptions. I was unemployed and living in my car for 18 months in SV, because I wasn't yet tech-trained in 2009. If you were an engineer casting your cold eye on the world, I'm sure you turned your nose up at the millions of us who were't in tech then. Or maybe we just didn't count us as real people.
  - pfarnsworth 11y ago
    Your past experiences are truly irrelevant to the point you made and what I was responding to. And your ad hominem attacks are misplaced as well. You have admitted you didn't go through the 2001 bust, so you, by definition, have no idea what it was like. Dismissing talk of 2016 being a bad year as doom-saying, exaggerating or self-aggrandizing clearly shows you have no idea how bad it can get for the industry as a whole. I don't care if you were unemployed and living in a car for 18 months in 2009/2010, because it's irrelevant to the point. There are plenty of people unemployed and living in cars even during the dotcom boom. But 2009/2010 weren't anything compared to the depths of the dotcom bust.
    - dang 11y ago
      The user you're replying to was too aggressive in their comment, but you're doing that as well. Please just be nice when commenting here.
      - pfarnsworth 11y ago
        No, I wasn't too aggressive at all. I used very unaggressive words, on purpose in fact. What's worse than two people disagreeing is some nanny police or censorship mod who is overly policing every single word used. Please don't turn HN into that kind of forum.
w1ntermute 11y ago
That's easy for you to say now that you're one of the Google bourgeoisie, financially protected and coddled by its search monopoly. The vast majority of developers will never be so fortunate.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  Maybe... but my recovery started far before Google. There will be downturns, but there will be work. You might not get a new yacht, but you'll be able to feed your family.
bkokoszka 11y ago
> Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. I don't think this is true. There's one study that found that students who graduate into a recession have worse earnings even long after the recession has ended: http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html Eventually the effect wears off, but there's no evidence of a long-term benefit to graduating into a bad economy.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  I'm probably bias since most of my joy has come from recovering from such a low point. There is almost anywhere to go from the bottom -- the top can leave you with long periods missing better days.

joeax 11y ago

I'm a software engineer that's lived through the dotcom crash and the great recession. I can tell you the dotcom crash was much more devastating for the tech community since we were at the center of it. There will always be a demand for software engineers, just keep in mind though that this demand is cyclical and during down years you have less leverage in salary negotiations and perks on the job tend to be taken away. If you are a good developer though you'll have little to worry about.

IndianAstronaut 11y ago
Also, hopefully as wel paid devs, people have a good savings buffer and no debt.
- bgia 11y ago
  except if they bought a $1M house in SV
  - hkmurakami 11y ago
    or worse yet, a $1M condo in SOMA.
TwoBit 11y ago
I worked for Electronic Arts during the dot com crash, and EA's value was even or increasing through that peroid. Why? Because they made an actual product, with their own money.

potatolicious 11y ago

I suppose that depends on your definition of "seriously". There is a general cooling off, not a collapse. There aren't many companies going under entirely, which is distinctly unlike the first dotcom bubble where after the pop the ground was littered with the corpses of companies. IMO what we're likely to see is a slowdown in early-stage startup hiring. Series-A and B funding is already harder to come by, and so execs will be more conservative about burn rate, including on payroll. Unicorns will continue to hire aggressively, but their equity will look worse and worse as their valuations get cut or they get murdered in the aftermath of their own IPO. I think we will continue to see major unicorns have their valuations slashed, and we will continue to see tech stocks struggle in the public markets. But this will impact employee compensation more than it will impact overall demand for new hires. What this probably will mean is that offers from unicorns will be less attractive next to offers from BigTechCo, but ultimately we're still talking about offers in the top 10% of the entire USA, so it's hardly a cause for panic. And of course the juggernauts of AmaGooFaceSoft and co. will continue to hire like crazy. So yeah, the job market will get a bit softer, so you might be facing tougher competition, but it's not exactly doom and gloom. It's certainly still a better outlook than what you were facing in electrical engineering.

fratlas 11y ago
I'm based in Australia, only half considering making the move to the US if I get an offer from the big 5. I guess I'm only worried if this would have an affect on the amount of positions available from mid sized companies (I've filled my quota of startup experience through internships).

blackguardx 11y ago

I'm an electrical engineer and I don't think the job market is that bad. Not as good as software, but better than other engineering disciplines.

pkaye 11y ago

Regarding the ee jobs, I've seen quite a few of them exported overseas over the years to places like Taiwan and China. Usually the software side is considered "the secret sauce" and kept close to HQ. I've seen more than my share of experienced ee folks telling me they wished they chose software as the focus. But it is always hard to predict in the game of musical chairs what the next winner or loser will be. You try to stay a broad focus as a problem solver and learn to adapt.

jonesb6 11y ago

I won't play oracle here. But I would like to point out that there are a number of skill sets you yourself can develop over the next year to make you more resilient to hiring trends (and depressions). Networking. Sales. Domain knowledge. As an undergrad myself, I feel most of my peers expect a job to be given to them as soon as they graduate. For some this will be true, for many it will not. I feel that this is a terrible mindset and will cause a lot of pain for people in our age group. So networking, as in know people, know companies, you don't have to be an extreme extrovert but put yourself out their and actively try to meet and build relationships with people in the industry. Sales, as in selling yourself as the product. Practice interviews, enunciation, phone conversations, whatever you have to do. If you come across as an A-player/personality you are much more likely to be hired. Domain knowledge, get a basic understanding of what's in use today, what probably will be in use tomorrow, and build an expertise in it. It requires a lot of time but it will clearly distinguish you from those who don't bother doing so. While many companies prioritize hires that can learn quickly, don't forget the very real business need of someone who can jump in and run with the team immediately. If you have this there will always be a place for you at some company, you would only need to find one with a real immediate need, then, "oh hey I can do that for you"..

RobertDeNiro 11y ago
Networking seems to be the hardest for me and I imagine others as well. I've been out of college for two years now and I have no idea how to meet new people.
- jedberg 11y ago
  Go to meet ups. Go to conferences. If you're short on cash, go to where a conference is being held and hang out in the halls chatting people up. Maybe security will kick you out, maybe they won't. Maybe they aren't even checking who is going into the BOF sessions at night. Go that one year old's birthday party you were invited to being thrown by that older coworker of yours that you kinda know. Maybe you'll meet an interesting person who turns out to be your boss in ten years. There's lots of ways to meet people, it's just not going to get thrown on your lap anymore. You gotta go out and find it.

madengr 11y ago

Switched from EE since jobs were abysmal; you mean the lack of jobs? But hey, we need more STEM!

fratlas 11y ago
Well going in to university the EE job opportunities were strong, but they've steadily gotten worse over the years in the US, and Australian power companies have had massive layoffs, reducing grad intake.