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It's just a figure of speech. You could compare it to getting struck by lightning or attacked by a shark: neither are (thankfully) uniformly distributed, but th

It's just a figure of speech. You could compare it to getting struck by lightning or attacked by a shark: neither are (thankfully) uniformly distributed, but they're both recognizably unlikely enough to provide an immediate shorthand for a negligible probability. Asking someone to imagine rolling a five on a 292201338-sided die may be more technically accurate, but makes for a very dry analogy indeed. No matter which shorthand you use, the conclusion is still the same: you're going to lose money playing the lottery.

drfuchs 11y ago
No, his university's press release says he calculated the value 25 carefully; it's even in the title: "You’re more likely to become president (25 times more likely, that is), than win Powerball, but someone will win, says UB biostatistician". See http://sphhp.buffalo.edu/home/news-events.host.html/content/shared/university/news/news-center-releases/2016/01/013.detail.html http://sphhp.buffalo.edu/home/news-events.host.html/content/...
- strangecasts 11y ago
  "You’re 25 times more likely to become the next president of the United States, assuming the entire U.S. population had an equal shot at the presidency, than you are to win Powerball, says Miecznikowski."
  - drfuchs 11y ago
    Right, so it's not "a figure of speech", which was my point. He wasn't just saying "hey, like, it's a billion-to-one", which would be a figure of speech because the "billion" clearly would not be meant literally. Rather, the 25 was specifically computed, albeit under unrealistic assumptions (as you point out). In any case, the fact is that he should have said that "you're 48 times LESS likely to become the next president of the US....," based on the observation that there's about one Powerball Jackpot winner per month: http://portalseven.com/lottery/powerball_jackpot_winners.jsp http://portalseven.com/lottery/powerball_jackpot_winners.jsp

drfuchs 11y ago

No, his university's press release says he calculated the value 25 carefully; it's even in the title: "You’re more likely to become president (25 times more likely, that is), than win Powerball, but someone will win, says UB biostatistician". See http://sphhp.buffalo.edu/home/news-events.host.html/content/shared/university/news/news-center-releases/2016/01/013.detail.html http://sphhp.buffalo.edu/home/news-events.host.html/content/...

strangecasts 11y ago
"You’re 25 times more likely to become the next president of the United States, assuming the entire U.S. population had an equal shot at the presidency, than you are to win Powerball, says Miecznikowski."
- drfuchs 11y ago
  Right, so it's not "a figure of speech", which was my point. He wasn't just saying "hey, like, it's a billion-to-one", which would be a figure of speech because the "billion" clearly would not be meant literally. Rather, the 25 was specifically computed, albeit under unrealistic assumptions (as you point out). In any case, the fact is that he should have said that "you're 48 times LESS likely to become the next president of the US....," based on the observation that there's about one Powerball Jackpot winner per month: http://portalseven.com/lottery/powerball_jackpot_winners.jsp http://portalseven.com/lottery/powerball_jackpot_winners.jsp