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I actually looked at this briefly in my Master's thesis. https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/1626974 https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/se
by ohashi 11y ago
I actually looked at this briefly in my Master's thesis. https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/1626974 https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/1626...
Rotten Tomatoes was the only one that had any hint of meaningfulness. The others (IMDB, MetaCritic had none). Twitter volume, sentiment and number of theaters it opened in were pretty good indicators though.
- igravious 11y agoAnd ad or promotional spend? This is a missing factor, surely? A movie will have a reputation: good, bad, or indifferent. But a movie also has to be known. Ad spend gets the movie in front of eye-balls at least insofar as it gets to be known to exist. But also word-of-mouth, which is like free ad spend. This is why there are slow burners and mega-flops. Incidentally this is why I have refused to see Titanic, Avatar, and the latest Star Wars in the theatre. If you scream in my face I'm not going to watch your movie in the theatre. Hype turns me off seeing something, but that's just me not wanting to roll with the crowd perhaps, and not a function of hype itself. Seems like most people don't react this way though.
- elthran 11y ago> If you scream in my face I'm not going to watch your movie in the theatre You've caught my interest here - Is this out of dislike for advertising as a whole? Do you apply this principle to non-movie situations? (TV, food products etc)
- ohashi 11y agoDidn't investigate it at all. Not really sure if it would or wouldn't be meaningful. Just thinking off the top of my head, Word of Mouth should be generated by ad spend. It's measuring ad efficacy in a way. Which might be better than ad spend (total dollars) for predicting success.