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I've yet to see a project management tool that allowed for uncertainty (say, a normal distribution) in estimating task efforts. And I've yet to see a technical
by mud_dauber 11y ago
I've yet to see a project management tool that allowed for uncertainty (say, a normal distribution) in estimating task efforts. And I've yet to see a technical team know their own capabilities for a task of > 1 week within 50%, mostly because every task is unique, and (nearly) every project team has inexperienced members.
A project management tool should have the ability to Monte Carlo estimations.
- andrewl 11y agoFogBugz, from Fog Creek Software, uses Monte Carlo simulation in its evidence-based scheduling tool: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html
- mud_dauber 11y agoNice! I'm all in favor of evidence-based estimations if the underlying data is available.
- jaggederest 11y agoI think it'd be interesting to take the estimate and actual numbers and figure out the actual distribution. Possibly per user. I'd like to use that myself. I bet it'd be heavily right-weighted since there's a finite amount of time to turn something in early, but an infinite amount to delay.