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I will bet you $1,000 that there will be ZERO driver-less cabs in Chicago by New Years Day 2021. Your statement that there's "too much value to capture" is abs
by officemonkey 11y ago
I will bet you $1,000 that there will be ZERO driver-less cabs in Chicago by New Years Day 2021.
Your statement that there's "too much value to capture" is absolutely correct. The value that is being captured is human labor.
There are entrenched political interests that will slow down adoption of this that will make climate-change deniers look like kindergarten bullies.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- txru 11y agoI agree that the adoption rate will be slower than the 3-5 years rate stated by the commenter above. I do think, though, that of the major cities, many people would agree that Chicago is among the most resistant to changes in labor due to customer preferences, due to its unique political system. That said, though, imagine how absurd it would have been 6 years ago to imagine the market share that the Chicago yellow cab companies are losing, to newcomers that didn't even exist yet. I don't think many people, especially cab companies and Chicago legislators, could have predicted it. The swell of opposition in legislators against cheaper technological answers to current labor solutions is heroic- the question that remains is, 'How long before consumer demand for the radically cheaper and/or more efficient option makes the opposition moot?'. The answer usually seems to be: 'Sooner than everyone thinks.'
- rayiner 11y agoThe first satellite was launched in 1957. The first man landed on the moon only 12 years later in 1969. But that didn't meant that a trip to Mars was in the cards even decades later. Uber was a matter of applying well understood techniques and waiting for a critical mass of GPS enabled mobile devices with data support. Self driving cars still need to overcome fundamental challenges. It could happen in five years, or 50 years might pass without breaking through the final hurdles. Remember, the last 10% is 90% of the work.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- cityzen 11y agoI set a reminder for Jan 1 2021 to see if your prediction is correct. Now i guess we just wait.
- win_ini 11y agoCheck out an app called : iCalledIt. You can call out your predictions and set reminders :)
- koide 11y agoI somehow doubt it will be working by 2021...
- MichaelBurge 11y agoAre you going to 'call it'?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoElon Musk just did: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920
- DannoHung 11y agoThe people who own the medallions and consequently are politically entrenched are not the people who will be put out of jobs.
- officemonkey 11y agoPutting large numbers of people out of decent jobs is not something politically savvy people do in cities.
- afarrell 11y agoI disagree that that driverless cars will get tied up in regulation. You know who is excited about driverless cars? AARP, the most powerful lobbying organization in America, whose members are the most consistent voters in local elections and who are afraid of being isolated when they lose their ability to drive. http://www.aarp.org/home-family/personal-technology/info-2014/google-self-driving-car.html http://www.aarp.org/home-family/personal-technology/info-201...
- partiallypro 11y agoRegulations are largely local matters (at least on this matter,) and AARP is a federal powerhouse, not a local one.
- tyre 11y agoParent's comment still stands. National organizations have influence in local policy when it affects issues they care about. Normally, at least for very contentious issues, this doesn't happen (e.g. abortion, global warming, gay marriage) because those matters aren't handled locally. An issue like this would absolutely be a priority for AARP and its members. Those members, as correctly noted, are likely voters. Source: I work with local governments across the country.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoIt makes sense that Florida is one of the states aggressively allowing the testing of self-driven vehicles.
- gcr 11y agoYou're already wrong though. How do you define "cab"? How do you define "driverless"? Do you mean from arbitrary point A to arbitrary point B, or can there be only pre-defined connections between hubs? Must they travel above ground on ordinary streets, or specialized streets? How many people can they hold? And how do you define "driver"? Under certain interpretations of your bet, the MTA system already satisfies those requirements.
- officemonkey 11y agoThere's not a single legal Chicago taxi-cab that is driver-less. Don't be fatuous.
- umanwizard 11y agoYes, trains and cars count as different things because cars can go from arbitrary point A to arbitrary point B on normal roads. What is your point?
- gcr 11y agoMy point is that it's important to be precise about the terms of a bet like that.
- officemonkey 11y agoBecause the word "cab" is too ambiguous for you. Sigh.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- fscherer 11y agoAdoption could be slower than we think, but I don't think regulatory issues will be that big, the whole logistics industry will push it and many more. I also think that possible profits are the stronger incentive than preserving human labor