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Generally speaking, the population of Japan is going down and the population of the Greater Tokyo area is going up. Once youth hits college or working age, the

Generally speaking, the population of Japan is going down and the population of the Greater Tokyo area is going up. Once youth hits college or working age, they disproportionately head for the capitol. But then there's a small counter current where younger (say, 30's) are moving back to their original prefectures as they realize that they might be able to afford a better QoL making less money but also paying much less in expenditures.

sandworm101 11y ago
I hope some move back. From what I've seen/heard, the countryside is suffering radical population shifts. The following article has some great graphs to illustrate the point. There is a giant dip in the 20s (school) and a terrifying peak in the 55-60 range. But the greatest disparity is that there are many many more old (70s) than teenagers in the countryside. Across the nation those two groups are roughly equal. http://www.tofugu.com/2015/03/06/japanese-countryside-emptying/ http://www.tofugu.com/2015/03/06/japanese-countryside-emptyi...
- hkmurakami 11y ago
  Japan has a immense centralization of jobs in Tokyo (and to a much lesser extent Osaka). It's "go make your fortune in New York", but 10x as extreme. They've been talking about the need to decentralize for decades now. The earthquake showed the risk of centralization and having a single point of failure for the economy and the government (famously, some foreign companies moved HQ and/or datacenters to Osaka). Nothing has changed though. If anything things are becoming even more centralized. There has been minority political endeavors talking of introducing the concept of "States" to Japan to structurally support this sort of decentralization. At times attempts have come close to fruition (most recently Hashimoto's attempt in Osaka), but none have borne fruit.
jobu 11y ago
With the country’s record-low birthrate, aging population, and the threat of losing a third of its population by 2060, Japan faces a number of crises... It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few decades. Many European countries have similar problems with low fertility rates, but Japan has the additional disadvantage of being extremely xenophobic. While other countries may be able to bolster their populations with immigrants and refugees it seems unlikely Japan's culture will allow that.
- hkmurakami 11y ago
  I completely (and unfortunately) agree. This population pattern manifests in so many countries. The United States would be in this situation if not for our immigration inflow. South Korea actually has an even lower birthrate than Japan. China has a smaller population base in its youth vs its middle aged segment as a result of their one child policy [1]. I wonder... will all developed nations engage in a war for productive immigrants in order to prevent a population pyramid based collapse of their economies? [1] http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-population-pyramid-2014.gif http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-p...
  - TeMPOraL 11y ago
    Count Europe out of it for now. If I'm to believe the things I see and read all the time, most of the EU population is rapidly turning against immigration. It's a huge issue on the continent now, and it causes tensions between people and local governments - the latter are being painted as giving out free aid to immigrants while not being able to care for their own people. Population pyramid is a distant concern, when the commonly held fears are that a) immigrants are trying to "steal our jobs", and b) the whole Europe will get slowly converted to Islam if we keep letting them in.
    - hkmurakami 11y ago
      The perception of scarcity of wealth (for lack of a better term) and things being zero sum between nationals and immigrants is truly regrettable. And SV is not immune to it, considering engineers' general opposition to increasing H1B quotas.
    - 7952 11y ago
      It seems to me that the labour market issues we face would exist regardless of how many immigrants are let in. In the long term jobs are at risk from automation. We have fewer middle income people who can afford or are willing to pay high income tax rates.
      - 11y ago
digi_owl 11y ago
You see this to a lesser degree in other parts of the world to. Around where i live, the only young people are boys/men that went straight into some low end industrial or service job after school. most of the women moved on to higher educations that required moving to a city or other, and stayed there after graduating.

sandworm101 11y ago

I hope some move back. From what I've seen/heard, the countryside is suffering radical population shifts. The following article has some great graphs to illustrate the point. There is a giant dip in the 20s (school) and a terrifying peak in the 55-60 range. But the greatest disparity is that there are many many more old (70s) than teenagers in the countryside. Across the nation those two groups are roughly equal. http://www.tofugu.com/2015/03/06/japanese-countryside-emptying/ http://www.tofugu.com/2015/03/06/japanese-countryside-emptyi...

hkmurakami 11y ago
Japan has a immense centralization of jobs in Tokyo (and to a much lesser extent Osaka). It's "go make your fortune in New York", but 10x as extreme. They've been talking about the need to decentralize for decades now. The earthquake showed the risk of centralization and having a single point of failure for the economy and the government (famously, some foreign companies moved HQ and/or datacenters to Osaka). Nothing has changed though. If anything things are becoming even more centralized. There has been minority political endeavors talking of introducing the concept of "States" to Japan to structurally support this sort of decentralization. At times attempts have come close to fruition (most recently Hashimoto's attempt in Osaka), but none have borne fruit.

jobu 11y ago

With the country’s record-low birthrate, aging population, and the threat of losing a third of its population by 2060, Japan faces a number of crises... It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few decades. Many European countries have similar problems with low fertility rates, but Japan has the additional disadvantage of being extremely xenophobic. While other countries may be able to bolster their populations with immigrants and refugees it seems unlikely Japan's culture will allow that.

hkmurakami 11y ago
I completely (and unfortunately) agree. This population pattern manifests in so many countries. The United States would be in this situation if not for our immigration inflow. South Korea actually has an even lower birthrate than Japan. China has a smaller population base in its youth vs its middle aged segment as a result of their one child policy [1]. I wonder... will all developed nations engage in a war for productive immigrants in order to prevent a population pyramid based collapse of their economies? [1] http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-population-pyramid-2014.gif http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-p...
- TeMPOraL 11y ago
  Count Europe out of it for now. If I'm to believe the things I see and read all the time, most of the EU population is rapidly turning against immigration. It's a huge issue on the continent now, and it causes tensions between people and local governments - the latter are being painted as giving out free aid to immigrants while not being able to care for their own people. Population pyramid is a distant concern, when the commonly held fears are that a) immigrants are trying to "steal our jobs", and b) the whole Europe will get slowly converted to Islam if we keep letting them in.
  - hkmurakami 11y ago
    The perception of scarcity of wealth (for lack of a better term) and things being zero sum between nationals and immigrants is truly regrettable. And SV is not immune to it, considering engineers' general opposition to increasing H1B quotas.
  - 7952 11y ago
    It seems to me that the labour market issues we face would exist regardless of how many immigrants are let in. In the long term jobs are at risk from automation. We have fewer middle income people who can afford or are willing to pay high income tax rates.
    - 11y ago

digi_owl 11y ago

You see this to a lesser degree in other parts of the world to. Around where i live, the only young people are boys/men that went straight into some low end industrial or service job after school. most of the women moved on to higher educations that required moving to a city or other, and stayed there after graduating.