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Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have terrible

Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have terrible odds. Wouldn't it be better to simulate X numbers on Y draws, which would lead you to know the number of times/people would have to play to win. I don't think probability is communicative, is it? EDIT: It would also be neat to simulate the number of winners you would have to share the prize with, based on numbers entered in the form from users.

deleted 11y ago
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cableshaft 11y ago
Agreed, I want to play where I can put as much money into it for each drawing, and then it simulates that, not one ticket one drawing. I'm not doing this in reality (I spent $2 for a pool, woo), but I'm curious to see it simulated.
- pavornyoh 11y ago
  I have fun idea.. How about all the people on hacker news put $2 in the HN lotto pool:). So I am assuming there are over 50k people that read? Can you imagine if the people on HN win powerball, it will set a precedent. Now, that will be fun:).
fapjacks 11y ago
Yes, it absolutely is. Buy two tickets, your chances double. This is the "don't play the lottery, dummy" for dummies, which is good advice for people that think they have anything more than an infinitesimal chance of winning, and/or pour more than five bucks into a single play.
jchendy 11y ago
It's also not clear what the end condition is. I edited the source so that it always picks my numbers, and it just keeps going. So far I've spent $2,734 and won over a trillion.
- cbhl 11y ago
  It stops when balance = 0, i.e. you spent $x + all your winnings on lottery tickets.
  - aetherson 11y ago
    Right, which is some bullshit. I mean, they cheated. Yes, it is mathematically provable that a random walk will eventually touch 0. That would be the case even if the lottery was strongly positive expected value. They ask you to comment if you won. Their program guarantees you lose when it terminates -- even if you hit the 1:292,000,000 odds.
    - vorotato 11y ago
      That's not true. 1) The title is can you win 800 million in powerball. If you passed 800 million, you win congratulations you did it. 2) It can be impossible to reach 0 even with a random walk.
      - cbhl 11y ago
        I think you want to be more precise about "impossible". It is not mathematically provable that a random walk of finite length will eventually touch 0. Proof by counterexample: the set of every walk of length 1 where you win the jackpot on your first try. However, consider an infinite random walk. You can fix the first n values of the walk to win the jackpot as much as you want, but as the random walk progresses toward infinity, it is highly probable that you will be on a random walk that tends toward negative infinity. (You might have to play a lot; $437 million of $3 tickets would probably be enough tickets to play powerball for a few lifetimes.)
- elf25 11y ago
  you are the only cadet to pass the kobiashilotto test.
cbhl 11y ago
But there are only two drawings a week, right? If you only bought one ticket with the same six numbers for every single drawing in a year, you could only spend 532$3 = $318/year on lottery tickets. If you wanted to spend $100 on tomorrow's $800M prize, you have to buy 33 tickets against one set of winning numbers.
QuotedForTruth 11y ago
Its not exactly the same but its pretty close when the chances are so low anyways. Playing 10,000 times in 1 drawing gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422297813=10000/292201338 Playing 10,000 times in 10,000 drawings gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422239258=1-((292201338-1)/292201338)^10000 The difference gets more significant if you play more. For 10 million plays its: .0342 vs .0336 If you play only 100 times the probability of a jackpot is the same to 7 significant digits. -edit I put it on $1M and let it run. I hit the 5 numbers, $1M prize, at some point around $150k spent.
- bradleyjg 11y ago
  If you play quickdraw you could get the same numbers twice. I think with that caveat the odds should be the same.
  - ethbro 11y ago
    To be fair, wouldn't the odds of QuickDraw picking the same numbers twice (even if there weren't a built in limit against that) be the same odds as winning the jackpot in the first place?
    - QuotedForTruth 11y ago
      Only if you are only picking two sets of numbers. If you are doing 10k sets, the last set has a 9999/292M chance of being the same numbers as one of the other sets.
      - bradleyjg 11y ago
        Right, that's the birthday problem.
  - LanceH 11y ago
    It evens out on expected payout. There is a chance on 10,000 sequential plays that you win the lottery 10,000 times.

deleted 11y ago

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cableshaft 11y ago

Agreed, I want to play where I can put as much money into it for each drawing, and then it simulates that, not one ticket one drawing. I'm not doing this in reality (I spent $2 for a pool, woo), but I'm curious to see it simulated.

pavornyoh 11y ago
I have fun idea.. How about all the people on hacker news put $2 in the HN lotto pool:). So I am assuming there are over 50k people that read? Can you imagine if the people on HN win powerball, it will set a precedent. Now, that will be fun:).

fapjacks 11y ago

Yes, it absolutely is. Buy two tickets, your chances double. This is the "don't play the lottery, dummy" for dummies, which is good advice for people that think they have anything more than an infinitesimal chance of winning, and/or pour more than five bucks into a single play.

jchendy 11y ago

It's also not clear what the end condition is. I edited the source so that it always picks my numbers, and it just keeps going. So far I've spent $2,734 and won over a trillion.

cbhl 11y ago
It stops when balance = 0, i.e. you spent $x + all your winnings on lottery tickets.
- aetherson 11y ago
  Right, which is some bullshit. I mean, they cheated. Yes, it is mathematically provable that a random walk will eventually touch 0. That would be the case even if the lottery was strongly positive expected value. They ask you to comment if you won. Their program guarantees you lose when it terminates -- even if you hit the 1:292,000,000 odds.
  - vorotato 11y ago
    That's not true. 1) The title is can you win 800 million in powerball. If you passed 800 million, you win congratulations you did it. 2) It can be impossible to reach 0 even with a random walk.
    - cbhl 11y ago
      I think you want to be more precise about "impossible". It is not mathematically provable that a random walk of finite length will eventually touch 0. Proof by counterexample: the set of every walk of length 1 where you win the jackpot on your first try. However, consider an infinite random walk. You can fix the first n values of the walk to win the jackpot as much as you want, but as the random walk progresses toward infinity, it is highly probable that you will be on a random walk that tends toward negative infinity. (You might have to play a lot; $437 million of $3 tickets would probably be enough tickets to play powerball for a few lifetimes.)
elf25 11y ago
you are the only cadet to pass the kobiashilotto test.

cbhl 11y ago

But there are only two drawings a week, right? If you only bought one ticket with the same six numbers for every single drawing in a year, you could only spend 532$3 = $318/year on lottery tickets. If you wanted to spend $100 on tomorrow's $800M prize, you have to buy 33 tickets against one set of winning numbers.

QuotedForTruth 11y ago

Its not exactly the same but its pretty close when the chances are so low anyways. Playing 10,000 times in 1 drawing gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422297813=10000/292201338 Playing 10,000 times in 10,000 drawings gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422239258=1-((292201338-1)/292201338)^10000 The difference gets more significant if you play more. For 10 million plays its: .0342 vs .0336 If you play only 100 times the probability of a jackpot is the same to 7 significant digits. -edit I put it on $1M and let it run. I hit the 5 numbers, $1M prize, at some point around $150k spent.

bradleyjg 11y ago
If you play quickdraw you could get the same numbers twice. I think with that caveat the odds should be the same.
- ethbro 11y ago
  To be fair, wouldn't the odds of QuickDraw picking the same numbers twice (even if there weren't a built in limit against that) be the same odds as winning the jackpot in the first place?
  - QuotedForTruth 11y ago
    Only if you are only picking two sets of numbers. If you are doing 10k sets, the last set has a 9999/292M chance of being the same numbers as one of the other sets.
    - bradleyjg 11y ago
      Right, that's the birthday problem.
- LanceH 11y ago
  It evens out on expected payout. There is a chance on 10,000 sequential plays that you win the lottery 10,000 times.