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> The scariest thing about this for the global equity markets is that in 10-20 years the top 3 markets could be China, India and the US. > Whether or not you l
by hkmurakami 11y ago
> The scariest thing about this for the global equity markets is that in 10-20 years the top 3 markets could be China, India and the US.
> Whether or not you like the US stock market, it is fairly transparent and not run by the whims of the government. The other two countries are about as opaque as you can be. Speaking as a person who actively invests money, that's a very troubling thought.
> As one economic nobel prize winner put it... "China and India haven't put out a credible macroeconomic number in the past 10 years".
This was one of the reasons cited for renowned hedge fund Nevsky Capital closing its doors. They are up 1212% since 2000. [1]
"Data releases have become much less transparent and truthful at both a macro and a micro level. At a macro level the key issue is the ever increasing importance of China and India. China is the world’s second largest economy, but already much larger than the US in a broad swathe of sectors. India will be the world’s third largest economy within a decade. Unfortunately their rise is increasing the global cost of capital because an ever growing share of the most important data they produce is simply not credible. Currently stated Chinese real GDP growth is 7.1% and India’s is 7.4%. Both are substantially over stated. This obfuscation and distortion of data, whether deliberate or inadvertent, makes it increasingly difficult to forecast macro and hence micro as well, for an ever growing share of our investment universe."
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/why-15-billion-nevsky-capital-shutting-down-full-letter http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/why-15-billion-nevs...