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> Chinese companies are the only ones that can serve Chinese customers I don't agree with this; but Chinese companies are in a much better position to do so, a
by exelius 11y ago
> Chinese companies are the only ones that can serve Chinese customers
I don't agree with this; but Chinese companies are in a much better position to do so, and China is where the growth is.
> Clean energy in 20 years: in 20 years, most of the Chinese rich will have already left
A bit hyperbolic; but we already have a global economy. Foreign companies will continue to invest in China (both in companies and in their own projects) regardless of what the Chinese wealthy do. There are 1.2 billion people in China. Most don't brush their teeth. Think how much more toothpaste P&G could sell there if people became even moderately wealthy and more concerned about dental hygiene.
> large migration from rural to urban: there's no jobs waiting for these rural farmers.
As long as the Chinese government is willing to sponsor public works projects, there will always be jobs. And China is not unique in the transition from a manual labor to a knowledge labor economy: they're actually probably in a better position than most because they can benefit from explosive growth whenever they choose to. And don't forget that the Chinese population is aging rapidly: there will be more people exiting the workforce through retirement and death than new entrants into the workforce. Ensuring need and training match up is a problem, but I don't think any government has solved that one; so I wouldn't call it a huge impediment to their growth.
- sharetea 11y ago>I don't agree with this; No, that was your point. You said quote "nobody else is going to come in and take those customers except Chinese companies" >Foreign companies will continue to invest in China Sure they will, but it will be dramatically smaller. $850 billion a year outflow makes it so >if people became even moderately wealthy IF. These rural farmers have to compete with cheaper workforces in southeast Asia. And english speaking knowledge workers worldwide. >As long as the Chinese government is willing to sponsor public works projects The government did that already since 2008. All they got were 300% gdp/debt ratio and badly constructed roads/buildings. They can't borrow anymore money to do that, not with the carry trade unwinding and default rates going up.
- jhedwards 11y ago> All they got were 300% gdp/debt ratio and badly constructed roads/buildings. This is too hyperbolic. They got airports and a large network of trains and high-speed trains. They also got the internet, electricity and smart phones all of which are still relatively new to China. The impression I got when I lived there was that the past decade has been all about developing infrastructure. Now there is a young generation growing up with more education, more technology and more opportunity than ever. China is a huge, complex country early in its development and it is hard to generalize about it.