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People often point to the "ghost cities" like Ordos when declaring China to be in a massively overbuilt real estate bubble. Yet studies such as those done by Mc
by hodder 11y ago
People often point to the "ghost cities" like Ordos when declaring China to be in a massively overbuilt real estate bubble. Yet studies such as those done by Mckinsey below predict 350M more people moving to cities by 2030 [1]. Given NYC has a population of about 8M, it appears China actually needs to build an additional 44 NYC sized cities (or expand existing ones) by 2030.
Makes you question weather they really in a bubble? It appears they could fill Ordos and 43 other new cities in the next 15 yrs! Perhaps they need to be putting these cities up even more rapidly.
[1]http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/preparing_for_urban_billion_in_china http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/preparing_for_...
- dmoy 11y agoThe issue may not be that there is too much building, but that they're building in places people aren't going to be moving to. Ordos is in inner mongolia, and while there are a lot of people there, a lot more are moving to the east coast cities. Right, like if you were predicting 40% city growth in the US, the solution would not be to build new mega cities in Utah (which has a comparable percentage of US's population as Inner Mongolia has in China).
- hodder 11y agoAgree completely, just pointing out the scale of urbanization and trying to make people question what the media "knows" about China.
- harmegido 11y agoWould it be outside the realm of possibility for China to mandate that people move to those cities to fill them?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoNo.
- turar 11y agoOutside of Ordos, I don't think there are much of any other ghost cities really, unless someone can prove me wrong. All ghost cities from 3-5 years ago that were prominently featured in media are now populated. It just takes that much time for them to get to or near their planned capacity. China's political system allows it a luxury of very long-term planning, unlike the US, unfortunately.