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Meanwhile I've been trying to sell holdings when they go below the 12-month moving average, since that strategy would have made me a ton of money had I used the

• xyzzy4 11y ago
  What I found through lots of calibration is that it's best to sell when the weekly average of the S&P 500 is -2% compared to that same week a year ago, and then re-purchase when it goes back up to 0%. In fact it's best to short the S&P 500 when it's less than -2%. Perhaps if the interest rate is high then it's best to hold bonds, but that's not the current case. I can't guarantee the indicators will work in the future, but they worked in the past, and they make sense to me because the S&P 500 historically followed a momentum-like path. And I don't see why a 65 year trend based on mathematically simple technical indicators will suddenly change overnight just because it's the future versus the past. If you don't use indicators, then you're taking the strong position that they don't matter, which is more contrary to the evidence than using them. Unfortunately you either have to use indicators or not use them. So an "I don't know" opinion is still a definitive decision that they are worse, which is probably an incorrect decision.