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>What makes you think the otherwise very intelligent people are wrong? Mostly history. Specifically the history of such predictions made by smart people of th

>What makes you think the otherwise very intelligent people are wrong? Mostly history. Specifically the history of such predictions made by smart people of their own time that never came to pass. I assure you, this has all been predicted before. AI taking over the earth is always a decade away. There are people who wear tin-foil hats and there are those that sell tin-foil hats. The former think they're saving the world, while the latter are just making money off of the former. It's the same business model as religion and global warming.

senekerim 11y ago
This is one of those cases where you can't really extrapolate from history. At least linearly extrapolate.
TeMPOraL 11y ago
There are predictions and there are predictions. There will always be those predicting that strong AI is a decade away, right until the point when the last group is actually right about it. But there's a different kind of "prediction", which I think is the type those smart people subscribe to - that we are on the path to an AI, that there's nothing that would make it impossible to achieve as the technology progresses (a reminder: we have a working example that intelligence can be built - our brains). Of course there are a lot of obstacles on the way. Personally, the most probable is that our civilization ends before we reach the necessary level - because of war, or all the economic and political shenanigans we see every day.
Houshalter 11y ago
So their predictions are wrong, but yours are correct? You can't argue against someone else by saying all predictions are unreliable, and then insert your own predictions instead. And nice, you managed to cram global warming denial in there too.
- IanDrake 11y ago
  >So their predictions are wrong, but yours are correct? Wrong/correct? We're talking about predictions, so let's talk about probability. In the course of 20 years is it more probable that life will look more like it does today or that AI will make us all jobless? That is why I'm "more likely" right and Elon is "more likely" wrong. I'll put money down on it. If, in 10 years, it only takes 1 employee per shift to run an entire McDonalds, I'll give you $1,000. And yes, I don't believe your single factor over-fit models prove anything about global warming. I'll put money down on that too.
eli_gottlieb 11y ago
I was with you until you plunged straight into global-warming denial.
tim333 11y ago
> AI taking over the earth is always a decade away. I can't say I've seen that said. Any sources? Most predictions I've seen for AI surpassing human intelligence are for mid 21st century. The reasoning isn't rocket science. I wrote an essay about it for some school exam 34 years ago. If you discount the religious stuff then brains are biological computers of roughly fixed ability and regular computers are less able but get better each year. If so, they'll overtake and you can kind of graph it and make a rough estimate of when.

senekerim 11y ago

This is one of those cases where you can't really extrapolate from history. At least linearly extrapolate.

TeMPOraL 11y ago

There are predictions and there are predictions. There will always be those predicting that strong AI is a decade away, right until the point when the last group is actually right about it. But there's a different kind of "prediction", which I think is the type those smart people subscribe to - that we are on the path to an AI, that there's nothing that would make it impossible to achieve as the technology progresses (a reminder: we have a working example that intelligence can be built - our brains). Of course there are a lot of obstacles on the way. Personally, the most probable is that our civilization ends before we reach the necessary level - because of war, or all the economic and political shenanigans we see every day.

Houshalter 11y ago

So their predictions are wrong, but yours are correct? You can't argue against someone else by saying all predictions are unreliable, and then insert your own predictions instead. And nice, you managed to cram global warming denial in there too.

IanDrake 11y ago
>So their predictions are wrong, but yours are correct? Wrong/correct? We're talking about predictions, so let's talk about probability. In the course of 20 years is it more probable that life will look more like it does today or that AI will make us all jobless? That is why I'm "more likely" right and Elon is "more likely" wrong. I'll put money down on it. If, in 10 years, it only takes 1 employee per shift to run an entire McDonalds, I'll give you $1,000. And yes, I don't believe your single factor over-fit models prove anything about global warming. I'll put money down on that too.

eli_gottlieb 11y ago

I was with you until you plunged straight into global-warming denial.

tim333 11y ago

> AI taking over the earth is always a decade away. I can't say I've seen that said. Any sources? Most predictions I've seen for AI surpassing human intelligence are for mid 21st century. The reasoning isn't rocket science. I wrote an essay about it for some school exam 34 years ago. If you discount the religious stuff then brains are biological computers of roughly fixed ability and regular computers are less able but get better each year. If so, they'll overtake and you can kind of graph it and make a rough estimate of when.