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Disagree. The chances of NK using a nuclear weapon offensively is 0.03% They're crazy in Pyongyang, but not stupid. Same situation if Iran builds one. Doing so

Disagree. The chances of NK using a nuclear weapon offensively is 0.03% They're crazy in Pyongyang, but not stupid. Same situation if Iran builds one. Doing so would be suicide, and they know it. This is about defense. Also, I'm glad you brought up the point about a neighbor with the gun. When somebody has a gun, you're not likely to walk over and screw with them. Nuclear weapons have lead to a great peace between nation-states.

cpursley 11y ago
By the way, I would like to see US & Russia decrease their nuclear arsenal size by half or more. But there's no denial that since the advent and usage of the nuclear weapon, there's been no major world war. We're in one of the, if not the most, peaceful times in recorded human history. Even considering the current instability in the middle east. http://www.fallen.io/ww2/ http://www.fallen.io/ww2/
dghughes 11y ago
Coming from a family that thinks they are Gods isn't crazy already?
- cpursley 11y ago
  They don't actually believe they are Gods, of course. They project this image to maintain control of a brainwashed populace. I'd say their leadership is rather rational for their objective (which is to maintain total control and thwart intervention of the west).
  - mikeash 11y ago
    My worry is that someone in a leadership position might eventually start to believe their own propaganda. Not necessarily anyone in there now, but maybe a True Believer one-level down who finally gets fed up with realpolitik and compromise and decides to try to take over.
    - ende 11y ago
      That may be an interesting plotline for a movie, but reality is fortunately much different.
angdis 11y ago
The MAD doctrine seems to have worked with binary superpowers up through the 80's. But, I think its an open (and rather scary) question as to whether MAD will continue to work with multiple parties some of whom are batshit crazy and have demonstrated utter disregard for the safety and well-being of their populace. Is their leadership insane enough to sit in a well-stocked bunker while setting off an H-Bomb in South Korea or elsewhere.... umm yeah, I think so.
- cpursley 11y ago
  Let's hope. The world did survive the breakup of the soviet union, which left nuclear weapons and material all over the former soviet block without a major incident. If they do set off their one bomb (under the slim chance they could even deliver it), it would be utterly terrible. End of a major city? Probably. But not the end of the world. Japan, South Korea and the US would wipe NK out so fast they wouldn't even know what hit them. The end of North Korea regime? For sure.
  - jlebar 11y ago
    > South Korea and the US would wipe NK out so fast they wouldn't even know what hit them. The end of North Korea regime? For sure. Let's not forget about the millions North Koreans who would die as a result. They're people, and the number of them who are culpable for their regime's madness is a rounding error.
  - angdis 11y ago
    Yes. Although MAD doesn't necessarily require the end of the world (eg nuclear winter), or even the end of a regime. It just depends on consequences which are "unbearable" for either nation. I've always felt that the best strategy against NK is to simply wait for the regime to collapse on its own (along with sanctions that isolate them, FWIW). This is fine as long as they don't try to invade South Korea, leading to swift US-backed retaliation. But perhaps now as they continue to develop and "show off" their nukes, they'll feel emboldened to "try something" before their time runs out?
yarou 11y ago
Right, it has led to great peace among nation-states, except for the fact that rogue actors can easily acquire nuclear materiel in the former Soviet republics.

cpursley 11y ago

By the way, I would like to see US & Russia decrease their nuclear arsenal size by half or more. But there's no denial that since the advent and usage of the nuclear weapon, there's been no major world war. We're in one of the, if not the most, peaceful times in recorded human history. Even considering the current instability in the middle east. http://www.fallen.io/ww2/ http://www.fallen.io/ww2/

dghughes 11y ago

Coming from a family that thinks they are Gods isn't crazy already?

cpursley 11y ago
They don't actually believe they are Gods, of course. They project this image to maintain control of a brainwashed populace. I'd say their leadership is rather rational for their objective (which is to maintain total control and thwart intervention of the west).
- mikeash 11y ago
  My worry is that someone in a leadership position might eventually start to believe their own propaganda. Not necessarily anyone in there now, but maybe a True Believer one-level down who finally gets fed up with realpolitik and compromise and decides to try to take over.
  - ende 11y ago
    That may be an interesting plotline for a movie, but reality is fortunately much different.

angdis 11y ago

The MAD doctrine seems to have worked with binary superpowers up through the 80's. But, I think its an open (and rather scary) question as to whether MAD will continue to work with multiple parties some of whom are batshit crazy and have demonstrated utter disregard for the safety and well-being of their populace. Is their leadership insane enough to sit in a well-stocked bunker while setting off an H-Bomb in South Korea or elsewhere.... umm yeah, I think so.

cpursley 11y ago
Let's hope. The world did survive the breakup of the soviet union, which left nuclear weapons and material all over the former soviet block without a major incident. If they do set off their one bomb (under the slim chance they could even deliver it), it would be utterly terrible. End of a major city? Probably. But not the end of the world. Japan, South Korea and the US would wipe NK out so fast they wouldn't even know what hit them. The end of North Korea regime? For sure.
- jlebar 11y ago
  > South Korea and the US would wipe NK out so fast they wouldn't even know what hit them. The end of North Korea regime? For sure. Let's not forget about the millions North Koreans who would die as a result. They're people, and the number of them who are culpable for their regime's madness is a rounding error.
- angdis 11y ago
  Yes. Although MAD doesn't necessarily require the end of the world (eg nuclear winter), or even the end of a regime. It just depends on consequences which are "unbearable" for either nation. I've always felt that the best strategy against NK is to simply wait for the regime to collapse on its own (along with sanctions that isolate them, FWIW). This is fine as long as they don't try to invade South Korea, leading to swift US-backed retaliation. But perhaps now as they continue to develop and "show off" their nukes, they'll feel emboldened to "try something" before their time runs out?

yarou 11y ago

Right, it has led to great peace among nation-states, except for the fact that rogue actors can easily acquire nuclear materiel in the former Soviet republics.