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In arguments over the relative safeness of the world it is often pointed out that relatively few people have died recently in terrorist attacks, but as N. N. Ta
by jrlocke 11y ago
In arguments over the relative safeness of the world it is often pointed out that relatively few people have died recently in terrorist attacks, but as N. N. Taleb points out, the distribution of deaths by terrorist attacks is a fat tailed one: the current average does not preclude much higher future numbers. Such devices as this in the hands of such actors as NK give us more concrete feelings for the real risks involved. More focus needs to be paid to these sorts of risks, we will be lucky to live out our lives without a major nuclear terrorism event.
- serge2k 11y ago> More focus needs to be paid to these sorts of risks Yeah, we should really up the level of fear and tension over the terrorists.
- cpursley 11y agoThe Russians, the terrorists, and NK - oh my. Everyone must hand over a very large chunk of your paycheck to the defense industry or they bad guys going to come get all of us in our sleep!
- nikolay 11y agoWell, the Russians are a convenient threat, but they are compatible with us (in terms of views), reasonable, and educated people. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are the real enemies of the Western civilization and I can't believe we allow them to be our allies! I personally don't know much abut North Korea, and although it's definitely a threat, I feel that all this is just a show.
- cpursley 11y agoI agree. The Anti-Russia rhetoric is silly.
- nikolay 11y agoNot just silly - it's criminal! It's pushed by cliques that benefit from increasing aggression!
- noselfrighteous 11y agoIsh. How much do you know about the Russian cultural psyche? I'm not disagreeing that the paranoia around American<->Russian relations isn't massively overblown, but I think you underestimate the aspirations of the Russian ruling class, and the degree to which the working class would bend to those aspirations if called upon (forced to).
- nikolay 11y agoI'm Bulgarian, I know a lot of Russians, I've been raised with the Russian culture during communism, and I've been living 16 years in California. Russia is a powerful country, but I think China is a much bigger threat to the US than Russia!
- jrlocke 11y agoTry to imagine the effects a nuclear detonation or dirty bomb in Manhattan. I believe most people are undervaluing the probability and results.
- TeMPOraL 11y agoTry to compare it with the entire New York area, or the entire United States. It's a minor event. It won't destroy a country. Having one nuke doesn't make you a danger on a geopolitical scale. That said, such attack would obviously be a horrible thing, and reasonable preventive efforts are justified. The key word being reasonable.
- fokinsean 11y ago> It's a minor event What train of thought brings you to considering the destruction of a major city by a nuclear bomb a 'minor' event?
- TeMPOraL 11y agoMinor in comparison to the scale of a country. Especially if you consider that the yield you can expect from anyone who is not Russia or the US will level at most a district of a large western city. In no way I want to imply that such an event would not be absolutely horrible and an act of evil. But considering the actual damage that nukes do is what finally cured me of being scared shitless of nuke-wielding terrorists. And yes, I used to be really scared of that.
- mikeash 11y agoI agree, but this is such a different class of threat with such different mitigations that it doesn't really belong in the same category as what we normally think of as "terrorism." Fighting small-time groups like al Qaeda and ISIS doesn't help prevent a nuclear attack by the likes of North Korea, and makes things worse by diverting attention and resources. So while this is an excellent argument for "try very hard to make sure North Korea doesn't nuke anything" it is IMO a counterargument for "maintain or ramp up the Global War on Terror."
- crazy1van 11y agoDo you happen to have a link to Taleb talking the fat tailed risks of terrorism? I'd like to read more. Thanks!
- jrlocke 11y agoIn the past week he has tweeted about this a few times, I would start there!
- fokinsean 11y ago> we will be lucky to live out our lives without a major nuclear terrorism event. This sentiment comes to my mind quite frequently. Part of me can't believe that there hasn't been some sort of nuclear event already. Being only 25, I feel like such an event is inevitable in my life and have a really hard time convincing myself otherwise.