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> 1-2 percent gdp growth, 300 percent gasp/debt ratio ... Are these numbers real? If so, what are they based on? If they are just examples of what might be fou

> 1-2 percent gdp growth, 300 percent gasp/debt ratio ... Are these numbers real? If so, what are they based on? If they are just examples of what might be found under the hood, that's fine; I'd just be interested in some reliable non-official economic numbers.

austinz 11y ago
No, just a 'greatest hits' compilation of the same things China detractors have been complaining about since 1995. Their analysis is no better than the already dubious "official" numbers.
- hackuser 11y ago
  > a 'greatest hits' compilation of the same things China detractors have been complaining about since 1995 That's what we would expect to see in a bubble, criticisms that aren't coming true until the day it pops. How do we distinguish this situation from a bubble?
  - mikeash 11y ago
    If it were possible to distinguish it reliably, we'd get rich (and the bubbles wouldn't happen in the first place).
sharetea 11y ago
2% gdp growth http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773 http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-j... 300% gdp/debt http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-01/china-should-dethrone-its-gdp-target http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-01/china-shoul... bankrupt shadow banks http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06cc9b9c-44c4-11e5-b3b2-1672f710807b.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06cc9b9c-44c4-11e5-b3b2-1672f... bankrupt state commodity firms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/the-next-china-default-could-be-days-away-as-steel-firms-suffer http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/the-next-c... not much reserve reserve http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1756239-china-may-have-to-sell-1-2-trillion-in-reserves-every-year/ http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1756239-china-may-have-to-se... 500 billions in capital flight in Q3 http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/11/01/a-half-trillion-dollars-fled-china-in-q3/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/11/01/a-half-tr...

austinz 11y ago

No, just a 'greatest hits' compilation of the same things China detractors have been complaining about since 1995. Their analysis is no better than the already dubious "official" numbers.

hackuser 11y ago
> a 'greatest hits' compilation of the same things China detractors have been complaining about since 1995 That's what we would expect to see in a bubble, criticisms that aren't coming true until the day it pops. How do we distinguish this situation from a bubble?
- mikeash 11y ago
  If it were possible to distinguish it reliably, we'd get rich (and the bubbles wouldn't happen in the first place).

sharetea 11y ago

2% gdp growth http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773 http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-j... 300% gdp/debt http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-01/china-should-dethrone-its-gdp-target http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-01/china-shoul... bankrupt shadow banks http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06cc9b9c-44c4-11e5-b3b2-1672f710807b.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06cc9b9c-44c4-11e5-b3b2-1672f... bankrupt state commodity firms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/the-next-china-default-could-be-days-away-as-steel-firms-suffer http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/the-next-c... not much reserve reserve http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1756239-china-may-have-to-sell-1-2-trillion-in-reserves-every-year/ http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1756239-china-may-have-to-se... 500 billions in capital flight in Q3 http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/11/01/a-half-trillion-dollars-fled-china-in-q3/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/11/01/a-half-tr...