I feel like there are multiple questions getting conflated: * Does Bayes help honest enquirers to find the truth? (Relative to what? At what skill level?) * D

I feel like there are multiple questions getting conflated: * Does Bayes help honest enquirers to find the truth? (Relative to what? At what skill level?) * Does Bayes help bullshitters to hide the truth? (Relative to what? At what skill level of bullshitter and mark?) Re the second, I think it's difficult to use Bayes to bullshit someone who understands Bayes as well as you do.