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I've had people seriously claim to me that using Bayes theorem to evaluate beliefs that one deals with in ones everyday life using evidence that one comes acros
by astine 11y ago
I've had people seriously claim to me that using Bayes theorem to evaluate beliefs that one deals with in ones everyday life using evidence that one comes across in everyday life was likely a good idea and would reduce bias. I wish I'd had the presence of mind to point out that that did nothing to eliminate the selection bias of one's own experience. No mathematical formula can draw meaning out of weak or flawed evidence.
Trying to do so is like trying to 'enhance' a blurry photo so that you can see details in the photo that didn't exist.
- Anderkent 11y agoEven if you only get weak of flawed evidence, then you do what you can to make the best decisions given that evidence. No one tries to suggest you do actual bayesian calculations on everything you know, for the simplest reason that it's not computationally viable. But if your beliefs directly contradict bayes then you're doing something wrong - there's an inconsistency that's likely worth investigating, unless the matter is really minor. It's a sanity check for your decision making, not a constructive algorithm for the best decision.