Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise [1] is excellent. [1] http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail--but/dp/0143125087/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid

Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise [1] is excellent. [1] http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail--but/dp/0143125087/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1451951860&sr=8-1&keywords=the+signal+and+the+noise http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail--bu...