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I think, just like with most predictions that are based on trends, the current set of expectations will be uprooted by an unforeseen technological advancement.

I think, just like with most predictions that are based on trends, the current set of expectations will be uprooted by an unforeseen technological advancement. I'll even go as far as predicting that this technological advancement will be a personal (or family) aerial vehicle[1] that makes commuting as easy as vehicular travel, but perhaps safer, and definitely faster. In other words, I think the automobile will diminish in quantities, much like the horse, not because people need them less, but because something better comes along. 1. This could be a gyrocopter-like device or a drone-like device, but will likely not be a fixed-wing "flying car", especially beyond the extent to whicih a V-22 Osprey is a fixed-wing.

moftz 11y ago
A personal gyrocopter-like flying car would definitely be a luxury vehicle. Flying is still pretty expensive compared to just rolling on the ground. Only the wealthy would be able to afford such quick, direct travel. But then again, I see telepresence hardware as the thing that takes over as the mode of "transportation" for the wealthy businessmen and women. Why would you need to head into the city to attend a board meeting when Cisco would have a VR system ready to go in your home office? Sit at the desk while multiple cameras create a 3D representation of you. Your colleagues' images are projected around you so it appears as if everyone is in the same room. Motion tracking knows where your eyes are looking and where your head is facing so the images shift according to your viewpoint. Get up and give a presentation standing in front of your desk and get your virtual place in the room shifted to the front. Everyone can hear you, see you, and most importantly, see your body language. Go a little further with hardware power and have the computer place clothes on you. Wear a ratty tshirt in your home but wear a nice Armani suit in the meeting. Some of this tech is here already but just nowhere near as fast as it would need to be to achieve perfect, virtual telepresence.
nealabq 11y ago
Think of the possibilities even if cars stay on the ground. No more garages and driveways. Neighbourhoods will look a lot nicer, and maybe this will foster community engagement? House design will change, maybe with more multi-family units. Much narrower roads, with real estate that's now sacrificed to roadway given over to parkland or housing. Maybe cars will move partially or fully underground, travelling in large-diameter pipes. Like a sewer. Save the surface for people and bikes. Maybe I can own my own "car interior", a custom box that I can commute in every day. It won't have wheels or an engine, so when I want to go somewhere I'll summon an auto-auto that picks up my auto-box and ferries it around.
- Qworg 11y ago
  The "personalized interior" is the most socially acceptable end case I can foresee. We conflate two separate things when we consider what cars _are_ - a way to transport ourselves and things from place to place AND an extension of our home. The idea of home extension will be more difficult to break than the idea that you have to drive everywhere.
6stringmerc 11y ago
I think your prediction is a good one. I've been tracking certain technologies and have a wing concept for personal transportation that I'd really like to prototype in 2016, at least to show off the idea and run a couple tests. I envision it as needing only a 'driveway' worth of space to get a person airborn. Still contemplating the whole landing bit though haha.

moftz 11y ago

A personal gyrocopter-like flying car would definitely be a luxury vehicle. Flying is still pretty expensive compared to just rolling on the ground. Only the wealthy would be able to afford such quick, direct travel. But then again, I see telepresence hardware as the thing that takes over as the mode of "transportation" for the wealthy businessmen and women. Why would you need to head into the city to attend a board meeting when Cisco would have a VR system ready to go in your home office? Sit at the desk while multiple cameras create a 3D representation of you. Your colleagues' images are projected around you so it appears as if everyone is in the same room. Motion tracking knows where your eyes are looking and where your head is facing so the images shift according to your viewpoint. Get up and give a presentation standing in front of your desk and get your virtual place in the room shifted to the front. Everyone can hear you, see you, and most importantly, see your body language. Go a little further with hardware power and have the computer place clothes on you. Wear a ratty tshirt in your home but wear a nice Armani suit in the meeting. Some of this tech is here already but just nowhere near as fast as it would need to be to achieve perfect, virtual telepresence.

nealabq 11y ago

Think of the possibilities even if cars stay on the ground. No more garages and driveways. Neighbourhoods will look a lot nicer, and maybe this will foster community engagement? House design will change, maybe with more multi-family units. Much narrower roads, with real estate that's now sacrificed to roadway given over to parkland or housing. Maybe cars will move partially or fully underground, travelling in large-diameter pipes. Like a sewer. Save the surface for people and bikes. Maybe I can own my own "car interior", a custom box that I can commute in every day. It won't have wheels or an engine, so when I want to go somewhere I'll summon an auto-auto that picks up my auto-box and ferries it around.

Qworg 11y ago
The "personalized interior" is the most socially acceptable end case I can foresee. We conflate two separate things when we consider what cars _are_ - a way to transport ourselves and things from place to place AND an extension of our home. The idea of home extension will be more difficult to break than the idea that you have to drive everywhere.

6stringmerc 11y ago

I think your prediction is a good one. I've been tracking certain technologies and have a wing concept for personal transportation that I'd really like to prototype in 2016, at least to show off the idea and run a couple tests. I envision it as needing only a 'driveway' worth of space to get a person airborn. Still contemplating the whole landing bit though haha.