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Because that is already a possibility (carpooling is an established idea), and the critical reasons why it isn't more popular don't significantly change with au

Because that is already a possibility (carpooling is an established idea), and the critical reasons why it isn't more popular don't significantly change with automated cars. People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction. Perhaps more important is that it creates a strict commitment to be prepared to leave on time and a reliance on others leaving on time.

IanCal 11y ago
> People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction Many, many people already do this on public transport. What we're talking about is general door-to-door public transport. Car-pooling is awkward to arrange, particularly for short joined parts of the journey (e.g. picking someone up part way and dropping them off a little later), and it's extremely hard to arrange anything that overlaps such that the first passenger needs to get out before the last passenger (currently would involve handing over the keys to your car).
- MajorLOL 11y ago
  >Many, many people already do this on public transport Total fantasy. Virtually nobody uses public transport. 5% of commuters use public transport. Relative to the car-pooling, who sees double the volume of users as public transport, 10%. http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf
  - SEJeff 11y ago
    Guess that depends on where you live. In cities like NYC, or Chicago (where I live), having a car in the city is common, but the minority.
    - zevyoura 11y ago
      In the US, only NYC has over half of households without a vehicle [0]. Chicago has only 28% with no vehicle. [0] http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/21923-hitchin-a-ride-fewer-americans-have-their-own-vehicle http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/21923-hitchin-a-ride-fewer-...
  - astrange 11y ago
    How many people use public transit in Europe, or Japan and Korea?
    - IanCal 11y ago
      For commuting, roughly 20% in the UK or about 4 million people (26M working residents, ~80% commuters). About 50% within London. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/distance-travelled-to-work/2011-census-analysis---distance-travelled-to-work.html#tab-Method-of-travel-to-work http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/di...
  - chockablock 11y ago
    So what? The reason so few people use public transit across the US is very likely because it sucks at getting them door-to-door in a reasonable amount of time. The question is: if that changes, what might people choose to do? The example of large cities like NYC at least teaches us that the American preference for solo car travel is not fixed.
  - IanCal 11y ago
    Close to 20% across the UK (representing about 4 million people) and close to 50% in London (compared to 35% driving). http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/distance-travelled-to-work/2011-census-analysis---distance-travelled-to-work.html#tab-Method-of-travel-to-work http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/di... These are not insignificant figures. If you say "people don't want to do X" when millions of people in my country already do a more extreme form of X, then I think you're wrong.
deepGem 11y ago
Carpooling in private cars is very different from carpooling in self-driven cars. While you own the private cars, it's very reasonable to expect you not to share the ride with strangers or to occupy another's car. However, if it's a self-driven car which no one owns - it's just like public transit, but way more efficient. Instead of buying a monthly train or bus pass you just pay your self-driven car rental/lease, to be picked up door-to-door at your whim. This will happen and will bring about the 10x change.
- Retra 11y ago
  As long as cars aren't prohibitively expensive and remain symbols of personal freedom and identity, then people will pay for the luxury of not riding in public transportation.
  - Symbiote 11y ago
    People pay to use trains when the journey time compared to a car is marginal, since they can do something productive on the train. Some people pay more to use a first-class compartment.
  - danans 11y ago
    Some people have an aversion to riding on public transit when it is used by people large income/wealth disparities, i.e. the professional doesn't want to be on the same bus as the indigent person. Those people might use a vehicle subscription, because the cost of private rides would still be lower than the costs of private vehicle ownership (depreciation, maintenance, insurance). Many people would pay for the privilege of a private ride (like they do with Uber/Lyft now). If car subscriptions services succeed and are nearly ubiquitous, the personal-freedom symbolism of car ownership will degrade. Then, if people want to own a car as a status symbol, they will probably be better served by a more expensive one anyway, the same way people buy other status symbols (rose-gold iPhones, etc). Ironically, most of those status-symbol cars will still have an autonomous mode.
    - Retra 11y ago
CognitiveLens 11y ago
This is true with current car economics, but in a shared car economy, it will become increasingly expensive to have exclusive ownership, and people will vote with their wallets. Shared-car design could also be drastically different. I don't want to share a Honda Accord with random people, but I wouldn't mind sharing a road-train that had private compartments for each set of passengers...
metachris 11y ago
I think many people just don't want to coordinate with strangers, like a pickup time, place, etc. This will be much smoother if you just open an app like Uber and it tells you the next pickup time for where you want to head.
tomwalsham 11y ago
You just literally described trains and buses. Don't assume the form of the vehicle remains the intimate 3-across sedan style.

IanCal 11y ago

> People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction Many, many people already do this on public transport. What we're talking about is general door-to-door public transport. Car-pooling is awkward to arrange, particularly for short joined parts of the journey (e.g. picking someone up part way and dropping them off a little later), and it's extremely hard to arrange anything that overlaps such that the first passenger needs to get out before the last passenger (currently would involve handing over the keys to your car).

MajorLOL 11y ago
>Many, many people already do this on public transport Total fantasy. Virtually nobody uses public transport. 5% of commuters use public transport. Relative to the car-pooling, who sees double the volume of users as public transport, 10%. http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf
- SEJeff 11y ago
  Guess that depends on where you live. In cities like NYC, or Chicago (where I live), having a car in the city is common, but the minority.
  - zevyoura 11y ago
    In the US, only NYC has over half of households without a vehicle [0]. Chicago has only 28% with no vehicle. [0] http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/21923-hitchin-a-ride-fewer-americans-have-their-own-vehicle http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/21923-hitchin-a-ride-fewer-...
- astrange 11y ago
  How many people use public transit in Europe, or Japan and Korea?
  - IanCal 11y ago
    For commuting, roughly 20% in the UK or about 4 million people (26M working residents, ~80% commuters). About 50% within London. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/distance-travelled-to-work/2011-census-analysis---distance-travelled-to-work.html#tab-Method-of-travel-to-work http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/di...
- chockablock 11y ago
  So what? The reason so few people use public transit across the US is very likely because it sucks at getting them door-to-door in a reasonable amount of time. The question is: if that changes, what might people choose to do? The example of large cities like NYC at least teaches us that the American preference for solo car travel is not fixed.
- IanCal 11y ago
  Close to 20% across the UK (representing about 4 million people) and close to 50% in London (compared to 35% driving). http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/distance-travelled-to-work/2011-census-analysis---distance-travelled-to-work.html#tab-Method-of-travel-to-work http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/di... These are not insignificant figures. If you say "people don't want to do X" when millions of people in my country already do a more extreme form of X, then I think you're wrong.

deepGem 11y ago

Carpooling in private cars is very different from carpooling in self-driven cars. While you own the private cars, it's very reasonable to expect you not to share the ride with strangers or to occupy another's car. However, if it's a self-driven car which no one owns - it's just like public transit, but way more efficient. Instead of buying a monthly train or bus pass you just pay your self-driven car rental/lease, to be picked up door-to-door at your whim. This will happen and will bring about the 10x change.

Retra 11y ago
As long as cars aren't prohibitively expensive and remain symbols of personal freedom and identity, then people will pay for the luxury of not riding in public transportation.
- Symbiote 11y ago
  People pay to use trains when the journey time compared to a car is marginal, since they can do something productive on the train. Some people pay more to use a first-class compartment.
- danans 11y ago
  Some people have an aversion to riding on public transit when it is used by people large income/wealth disparities, i.e. the professional doesn't want to be on the same bus as the indigent person. Those people might use a vehicle subscription, because the cost of private rides would still be lower than the costs of private vehicle ownership (depreciation, maintenance, insurance). Many people would pay for the privilege of a private ride (like they do with Uber/Lyft now). If car subscriptions services succeed and are nearly ubiquitous, the personal-freedom symbolism of car ownership will degrade. Then, if people want to own a car as a status symbol, they will probably be better served by a more expensive one anyway, the same way people buy other status symbols (rose-gold iPhones, etc). Ironically, most of those status-symbol cars will still have an autonomous mode.
  - Retra 11y ago

CognitiveLens 11y ago

This is true with current car economics, but in a shared car economy, it will become increasingly expensive to have exclusive ownership, and people will vote with their wallets. Shared-car design could also be drastically different. I don't want to share a Honda Accord with random people, but I wouldn't mind sharing a road-train that had private compartments for each set of passengers...

metachris 11y ago

I think many people just don't want to coordinate with strangers, like a pickup time, place, etc. This will be much smoother if you just open an app like Uber and it tells you the next pickup time for where you want to head.

tomwalsham 11y ago

You just literally described trains and buses. Don't assume the form of the vehicle remains the intimate 3-across sedan style.