4 ms·

When he refers to "the spread of computing power" he seems to be talking about software startups in particular. But when he says "The ultimate way to get market

When he refers to "the spread of computing power" he seems to be talking about software startups in particular. But when he says "The ultimate way to get market price is to work for yourself, by starting your own company" he is either talking about every imaginable form of business, or he is talking complete gibberish. If everyone goes into one sector, the economy would soon suffer an abundance in that sector, and a relative lack in other sectors. So his point is either true of any business that one might start, or he has no point at all.

ericd 11y ago
There are "tech startups" that serve lots of "non-tech" sectors of the economy. One of the major beliefs in SV is that this is going to happen more and more, with companies making tech that augments or replaces entire sectors of human work. There's obviously a ways to go before this will be possible with some areas.
nostrademons 11y ago
It's not unreasonable for everyone to go into one sector, and then for that sector to eat the entire rest of the economy (a la a16z's "software is eating the world" investment thesis). Imagine that software is an innovation akin to assembly lines. If you started a company in 1840 that used assembly lines, you were going into a very specific industry: textiles. If you started a company in 1890 that used assembly lines, it could be one of dozens of industries: textiles, steel, oil, tobacco, meatpacking, etc. If you started a company in 1930 that didn't use assembly lines, you were insane and destined for failure. What's happened, historically, is that as a technology diffuses into new ways of doing things, old industries simply die out, and then the new industry differentiates into replacements for it. Specialized production in the middle ages was divided into guilds (many of which are family names now): you had smiths, cobblers, bakers, butchers, weavers, etc. When the industrial revolution happened, there was simply "industry"; it was only later that this differentiated into the steel industry to replace smiths, the meatpacking industry to replace butchers, the textile industry to replace weavers, etc. Similarly, when software got started in the 50s, there was only the "software industry". Now, 60 years later, it's differentiating into search, social, messaging, e-commerce, developer tools, homesharing, adtech, fintech, ridesharing, delivery, etc. And it's likely there's more to come: if I had to locate us in the history of the industrial revolution, I'd say we're around 1890 or 1900. At that point, the great industries of the mechanical age (mass-produced automobiles, airlines, plastics, radio, television, recorded music) had yet to be invented.

ericd 11y ago

There are "tech startups" that serve lots of "non-tech" sectors of the economy. One of the major beliefs in SV is that this is going to happen more and more, with companies making tech that augments or replaces entire sectors of human work. There's obviously a ways to go before this will be possible with some areas.

nostrademons 11y ago

It's not unreasonable for everyone to go into one sector, and then for that sector to eat the entire rest of the economy (a la a16z's "software is eating the world" investment thesis). Imagine that software is an innovation akin to assembly lines. If you started a company in 1840 that used assembly lines, you were going into a very specific industry: textiles. If you started a company in 1890 that used assembly lines, it could be one of dozens of industries: textiles, steel, oil, tobacco, meatpacking, etc. If you started a company in 1930 that didn't use assembly lines, you were insane and destined for failure. What's happened, historically, is that as a technology diffuses into new ways of doing things, old industries simply die out, and then the new industry differentiates into replacements for it. Specialized production in the middle ages was divided into guilds (many of which are family names now): you had smiths, cobblers, bakers, butchers, weavers, etc. When the industrial revolution happened, there was simply "industry"; it was only later that this differentiated into the steel industry to replace smiths, the meatpacking industry to replace butchers, the textile industry to replace weavers, etc. Similarly, when software got started in the 50s, there was only the "software industry". Now, 60 years later, it's differentiating into search, social, messaging, e-commerce, developer tools, homesharing, adtech, fintech, ridesharing, delivery, etc. And it's likely there's more to come: if I had to locate us in the history of the industrial revolution, I'd say we're around 1890 or 1900. At that point, the great industries of the mechanical age (mass-produced automobiles, airlines, plastics, radio, television, recorded music) had yet to be invented.