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Cities up and down the peninsula -- MV, PA, etc -- have far more jobs than housing supply and that ratio continues to grow. viz MV approving 3+ million square
by x0x0 11y ago
Cities up and down the peninsula -- MV, PA, etc -- have far more jobs than housing supply and that ratio continues to grow. viz MV approving 3+ million square feet of office space for linkedin, palantir, and google -- and then maybe, possibly, potentially authorizing up to 5k homes. Maybe. It's being discussed. So whenever SF builds housing, some goes to people from SF, and a lot of it goes to people previously renting in very supply constrained markets on the peninsula. Because of the foreign-to-sf buyers, and because new condos are generally of higher quality than much of sf's existing housing stock, and because these new buildings are cheaper than available houses on the peninsula, building more increases demand by bringing in such exogenous buyers.
Much of the increase in supply is in condos costing $1.2k +/ft2, ie more than $1mm, which exacerbates the above effects. They also don't help for people who can't afford to spend the roughly $5.5k or so that a $1mm property costs (after $200k downpayment, inclusive of tax and hoa fees.)
If you want to bring down house prices in sf, you have to build enough to satisfy pent-up demand from the peninsula, and outrun continued population movement from the whole US into SF. Or force the peninsula to build housing.
5k or 10k homes isn't going to to outrun demand, particularly after years of building virtually no housing in sf.
- tptacek 11y agoThe "foreign to SF buyers" (most people who have lived in SF in the past 30 years were probably at some point "foreign to SF") are buying up leases whether SF makes more of them or not. How does increasing the supply of leases do anything but lower prices?
- x0x0 11y agoAs I wrote: by drawing new buyers from the peninsula via two obvious mechanisms: increased availability, and increased quality/dollar. Where current residents came from is irrelevant to my argument. I don't understand where you get this faith that small amounts of construction magically decrease prices. Even micro-econ supply/demand curves don't say that, because of the aforementioned exogenous purchasers.