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I live in Colorado. Lots of profitable small farms here. You just need the right crop :-)

SwellJoe 11y ago
I suspect that is temporary. The bureaucracy is already very large in the pot industry, and will grow with time...the big players will guarantee regulators stack the deck in their favor. As legalization spreads across the country, growing will be concentrated in a few areas where it grows most easily and with the cheapest labor and most favorable legal climate (just as tobacco is concentrated in a few places). The big players may be new ones, but agricultural history in the US indicates the small players will get pushed out as the market matures.
- unabridged 11y ago
  I think the marijuana industry will more resemble the wine industry. Large bulk producers will cover the cheap end of the market but there will still be many highly respected small players.
  - TeMPOraL 11y ago
    I don't have much experience with marijuana. Does it actually have the kind of brand dynamics wines have? Can we expect people to prefer indulging in the pot equivalent of 10 or 50 years old wine if they can afford it?
  - SwellJoe 11y ago
    That's a reasonable theory. Marijuana is not (currently) physically addicting, though I wouldn't put it past the tobacco companies to figure out ways to make it physically addicting and brand specific in its addictive properties...I'd even bet they're working on it. So, in that regard is may be similar to wine, which though it does contain an addictive substance, most addicts are not wine drinkers as it is a very expensive source of alcohol. I still tend to think it will shake out similarly to tobacco, moreso than wine, but it's an interesting thought experiment to consider which substance it more resembles and how it will end up being regulated, taxed, and corporatized, in the long term as legalization spreads.
  - gozur88 11y ago
    I'm skeptical. Wine makers can differentiate themselves through the process by which they turn grapes into wine. The marijuana growers are more like grape farmers than vintners.
shalmanese 11y ago
The bottom is going to drop out of the MJ market very soon. Doing the math, you can supply the entire US on a single farm around 10,000 acres (+ or - an order of magnitude) because of how little of it you need to have an effect. Now that the artificial barriers of illegalization have stopped propping up the price, you're going to see drastic, orders of magnitudes drops in prices. Even under the most generous taxation and regulation assumptions, the price of the MJ will end up costing about the same as the rolling paper used to roll it at equilibrium.

I suspect that is temporary. The bureaucracy is already very large in the pot industry, and will grow with time...the big players will guarantee regulators stack the deck in their favor. As legalization spreads across the country, growing will be concentrated in a few areas where it grows most easily and with the cheapest labor and most favorable legal climate (just as tobacco is concentrated in a few places). The big players may be new ones, but agricultural history in the US indicates the small players will get pushed out as the market matures.

unabridged 11y ago
I think the marijuana industry will more resemble the wine industry. Large bulk producers will cover the cheap end of the market but there will still be many highly respected small players.
- TeMPOraL 11y ago
  I don't have much experience with marijuana. Does it actually have the kind of brand dynamics wines have? Can we expect people to prefer indulging in the pot equivalent of 10 or 50 years old wine if they can afford it?
- SwellJoe 11y ago
  That's a reasonable theory. Marijuana is not (currently) physically addicting, though I wouldn't put it past the tobacco companies to figure out ways to make it physically addicting and brand specific in its addictive properties...I'd even bet they're working on it. So, in that regard is may be similar to wine, which though it does contain an addictive substance, most addicts are not wine drinkers as it is a very expensive source of alcohol. I still tend to think it will shake out similarly to tobacco, moreso than wine, but it's an interesting thought experiment to consider which substance it more resembles and how it will end up being regulated, taxed, and corporatized, in the long term as legalization spreads.
- gozur88 11y ago
  I'm skeptical. Wine makers can differentiate themselves through the process by which they turn grapes into wine. The marijuana growers are more like grape farmers than vintners.

shalmanese 11y ago

The bottom is going to drop out of the MJ market very soon. Doing the math, you can supply the entire US on a single farm around 10,000 acres (+ or - an order of magnitude) because of how little of it you need to have an effect. Now that the artificial barriers of illegalization have stopped propping up the price, you're going to see drastic, orders of magnitudes drops in prices. Even under the most generous taxation and regulation assumptions, the price of the MJ will end up costing about the same as the rolling paper used to roll it at equilibrium.