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"us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them" Jonathan Rothwell is an analyst at the Brookings Institution. The U

"us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them" Jonathan Rothwell is an analyst at the Brookings Institution. The US News article is a summary of a research report he published based on an empirical study of job openings. His research is also cited in the BLS report I linked to, so I don't believe there is contention. I believe his methodology is more pertinent on this topic, since he looked at how long it took to fill positions rather than second order metrics like salaries. "and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs." "unless you are arguing 32% of CS graduates are completely worthless?" I didn't read that as 32% of CS graduates couldn't find jobs. It was 32% of CS graduates who couldn't find jobs attributed it to lack of open positions. More below: "All you've really shown is CS has matured to the point where a good software engineer is on par with other engineering fields in terms of business value and their salary is starting to reflect that. That isn't a sign of a shortage but rather an indication the quality of engineer is more important than the quantity of engineer." I don't think the maturing of CS is a recent phenomenon. Fred Brooks wrote about quality and output of software engineers 40 years ago. What has changed recently is a rapid growth in the number of CS positions: http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s... Since it takes time for people to build skills, I'd assert this naturally results in a shortage of more senior engineers. Every company has a distribution of new hires (that require training and mentoring) and experienced engineers. I see this as an argument to increase H1Bs to bring in experienced engineers. Although we have seen an uptick in the number of CS graduates in the US, it has historically been low, and dropped after the last downturn: http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/american-college-students-aren-t-flocking-to-computer-science.html http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/america... On the other hand, other countries like China and India have been churning out significantly more CS graduates for years (Table 1.1): http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineering_Graduates_in_China_and_India_-_EngineeringUK_-_March_2012.pdf#page=5 http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineerin... Which would create natural pressure for CS engineers to move to the US. [edit: clarified a sentence that didn't make much sense]

fweespeech 11y ago
> I didn't read that as 32% of CS graduates couldn't find jobs. It was 32% of CS graduates who couldn't find jobs attributed it to lack of open positions. More below: Yeah, I suppose I was up late and wasn't thinking clearly. Your interpretation might be correct, its more like 6-12%. That isn't full employment of CS grads in CS regardless. Anyway: http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/07/16/beyond-the-headline-us-census-study-on-stem-graduates http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/07/16/beyond... > Only 1 in 4 students graduating with a degree in science, technology, engineering or math find a job in a one of those fields, according to a report recently released by the Census Bureau. (I'm just using US News so I don't have to go find the Census link again since it moved) http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-microsoft-report-distorts/ http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-mi... > The Microsoft report projects a labor shortage over the next eight years by incorrectly assuming that only individuals with a bachelor’s degree in computer science can fill jobs in computer-related occupations. Data analyzed for this memorandum as well as other studies show that less than one-fourth to less than one-half of workers in computing occupations have a computer science degree. I get you have your opinions that the CS degree is a relevant indicator but 75% of STEM graduates work in non-STEM fields the majority of CS developers have non-CS degrees. https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Unemployment.Final_.update1.pdf https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Unempl... > Unemployment in majors related to computers and mathematics vary widely depending on the technical and scientific content of the major. Employers are still hiring technical computer specialists who can write software and invent new applications. But for information specialists who use software to manipulate, mine, and disseminate information, hiring slows down in recessions. We can see the difference in unemployment between people who invent computer technology as opposed to people who use computer technology. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates in Information Systems has spiked to 11.7 percent, while the rates for majors in Computer Science and Mathematics are 7.8 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. ----- > Since it takes time for people to build skills, I'd assert this naturally results in a shortage of more senior engineers. Every company has a distribution of new hires (that require training and mentoring) and experienced engineers. I see this as an argument to increase H1Bs to bring in experienced engineers. Well, that is a completely different argument. However: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-... > Instead, about 250 Disney employees were told in late October that they would be laid off. Many of their jobs were transferred to immigrants on temporary visas for highly skilled technical workers, who were brought in by an outsourcing firm based in India. Over the next three months, some Disney employees were required to train their replacements to do the jobs they had lost. http://www.scpr.org/news/2015/06/12/52379/feds-investigating-so-cal-edison-after-allegations/ http://www.scpr.org/news/2015/06/12/52379/feds-investigating... > The federal Department of Labor has opened an investigation into alleged work visa abuse involving two outsourcing companies used by the Southern California Edison Company. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2879083/southern-california-edison-it-workers-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html http://www.computerworld.com/article/2879083/southern-califo... > SCE said the transition to Infosys and Tata "will lead to enhancements that deliver faster and more efficient tools and applications for services that customers rely on. Through outsourcing, SCE's information technology organization will adopt a proven business strategy commonly and successfully used by top U.S. companies that SCE benchmarks against." > The employees say that some of SCE's U.S. workers have been training their replacements, either in person in SCE's IT offices or over Web sessions with workers in India. The IT workers say the Indian tech workers do not have the skill levels of the people they are replacing. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/us/toys-r-us-brings-temporary-foreign-workers-to-us-to-move-jobs-overseas.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/us/toys-r-us-brings-tempor... > Since New York Life is not a technology company, said Mr. Werfelman, the spokesman, it turned to outside contractors for the upgrade. The company plans to cut about 300 positions, including up to one-fifth of its 1,400 technology workers, as well as some financial accountants. With 9,000 staff employees and 12,000 agents nationwide, New York Life is the largest mutual life insurer in the United States. Do I really need to go on? Its labor cost arbitrage in the mind of at least three major companies that are employing it on a large scale. At $DayJob, we can hire good US devs for about ~$60k. That isn't the sign of a shortage just because you can't do it in SV.

fweespeech 11y ago

> I didn't read that as 32% of CS graduates couldn't find jobs. It was 32% of CS graduates who couldn't find jobs attributed it to lack of open positions. More below: Yeah, I suppose I was up late and wasn't thinking clearly. Your interpretation might be correct, its more like 6-12%. That isn't full employment of CS grads in CS regardless. Anyway: http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/07/16/beyond-the-headline-us-census-study-on-stem-graduates http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/07/16/beyond... > Only 1 in 4 students graduating with a degree in science, technology, engineering or math find a job in a one of those fields, according to a report recently released by the Census Bureau. (I'm just using US News so I don't have to go find the Census link again since it moved) http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-microsoft-report-distorts/ http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-mi... > The Microsoft report projects a labor shortage over the next eight years by incorrectly assuming that only individuals with a bachelor’s degree in computer science can fill jobs in computer-related occupations. Data analyzed for this memorandum as well as other studies show that less than one-fourth to less than one-half of workers in computing occupations have a computer science degree. I get you have your opinions that the CS degree is a relevant indicator but 75% of STEM graduates work in non-STEM fields the majority of CS developers have non-CS degrees. https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Unemployment.Final_.update1.pdf https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Unempl... > Unemployment in majors related to computers and mathematics vary widely depending on the technical and scientific content of the major. Employers are still hiring technical computer specialists who can write software and invent new applications. But for information specialists who use software to manipulate, mine, and disseminate information, hiring slows down in recessions. We can see the difference in unemployment between people who invent computer technology as opposed to people who use computer technology. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates in Information Systems has spiked to 11.7 percent, while the rates for majors in Computer Science and Mathematics are 7.8 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. ----- > Since it takes time for people to build skills, I'd assert this naturally results in a shortage of more senior engineers. Every company has a distribution of new hires (that require training and mentoring) and experienced engineers. I see this as an argument to increase H1Bs to bring in experienced engineers. Well, that is a completely different argument. However: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-... > Instead, about 250 Disney employees were told in late October that they would be laid off. Many of their jobs were transferred to immigrants on temporary visas for highly skilled technical workers, who were brought in by an outsourcing firm based in India. Over the next three months, some Disney employees were required to train their replacements to do the jobs they had lost. http://www.scpr.org/news/2015/06/12/52379/feds-investigating-so-cal-edison-after-allegations/ http://www.scpr.org/news/2015/06/12/52379/feds-investigating... > The federal Department of Labor has opened an investigation into alleged work visa abuse involving two outsourcing companies used by the Southern California Edison Company. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2879083/southern-california-edison-it-workers-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html http://www.computerworld.com/article/2879083/southern-califo... > SCE said the transition to Infosys and Tata "will lead to enhancements that deliver faster and more efficient tools and applications for services that customers rely on. Through outsourcing, SCE's information technology organization will adopt a proven business strategy commonly and successfully used by top U.S. companies that SCE benchmarks against." > The employees say that some of SCE's U.S. workers have been training their replacements, either in person in SCE's IT offices or over Web sessions with workers in India. The IT workers say the Indian tech workers do not have the skill levels of the people they are replacing. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/us/toys-r-us-brings-temporary-foreign-workers-to-us-to-move-jobs-overseas.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/us/toys-r-us-brings-tempor... > Since New York Life is not a technology company, said Mr. Werfelman, the spokesman, it turned to outside contractors for the upgrade. The company plans to cut about 300 positions, including up to one-fifth of its 1,400 technology workers, as well as some financial accountants. With 9,000 staff employees and 12,000 agents nationwide, New York Life is the largest mutual life insurer in the United States. Do I really need to go on? Its labor cost arbitrage in the mind of at least three major companies that are employing it on a large scale. At $DayJob, we can hire good US devs for about ~$60k. That isn't the sign of a shortage just because you can't do it in SV.