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1. Fair enough. I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth, I was speaking more to the general theme of articles and discussions on this topic. Their thesis, as

1. Fair enough. I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth, I was speaking more to the general theme of articles and discussions on this topic. Their thesis, as I understood it is: "There is no shortage of tech workers (specifically software engineering and IT) and companies like Google are lying about it to reduce wages." 2. Similarly, my comment was on intent, not effect. But this probably won't be a productive line of debate, since intent is hard to prove. 3. I'm a data point, albeit only one. There's a problem using technology industry interchangeably with STEM, which can include things like biotech (which I understand is shrinking because of offshoring). http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem-surplus-yes-and-yes.htm http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem... "At the same time that shortages exist, there are areas with surpluses of STEM talent—most notably, biomedical Ph.D.’s. " Here's another summary of a report that shows: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/the-stem-worker-shortage-is-real http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/the-stem-w... "From 2000 to 2013, analyzing Bureau of Labor Statistics data and adjusting for inflation, median salaries for workers in computer and mathematical, health care practitioner, engineering, and science occupations rose 8 percent, 7 percent, 6 percent and 5 percent respectively, even as those for the average U.S. worker showed no growth." "My recent report analyzes this phenomenon using a rich database with millions of vacancies posted on company websites compiled by Burning Glass, a labor market analytics firm. There are some 40,000 computer science bachelor’s degree earners each year but roughly 4 million job vacancies for computer workers. In all, the median duration of advertising for STEM vacancies is more than twice that of those in other fields." 4. The tech industry is heavily regional, so the fact that it isn't US wide doesn't seem relevant. Likewise, it's not clear how many professions are lumped into that average.

fweespeech 11y ago
1+2) Yeah, the problem is I don't really judge people on their intent but rather the effect of their actions and whether it was reasonably predictable in terms of outcome. I feel in this case, it was, and therefore it is a problem they should be held responsible for regardless. 4) Yes, but its a failure to tap into the rest of the country that is the problem rather than a shortage of labor. --- 3) You are confusing an overabundance of non-STEM employment with a shortage in STEM employment. "No wage growth" is abnormal and not be the expectation with the kind of productivity gains we are seeing through technological advancement. [i.e. Technology is advancing at least as fast as it has in the past, therefore 0% wage growth is representative of a surplus] From your first link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem-surplus-yes-and-yes.htm http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem... > Looking at the STEM labor market, Salzman and colleagues concluded that, for every two students graduating with a U.S. STEM degree, only one is employed in STEM and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs. That right there destroyed your entire argument. Even your only credible source [No, us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them] agrees there isn't a shortage. I'm sorry but, frankly, as I've told literally every other person who has tried to argue your position...its simply not reality and the only real backing you have is a single opinion article by a non-Economist who has no clue what they are talking about and that is clear from the first link you provided which basically said your first link can't be correct [unless you are arguing 32% of CS graduates are completely worthless?]. http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-i... > Even in the computer and IT industry, the sector that employs the most STEM workers and is expected to grow the most over the next 5 to 10 years, not everyone who wants a job can find one. A recent study by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), a liberal-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C., found that more than a third of recent computer science graduates aren’t working in their chosen major; of that group, almost a third say the reason is that there are no jobs available. > And yet, alongside such dire projections, you’ll also find reports suggesting just the opposite—that there are more STEM workers than suitable jobs. One study found, for example, that wages for U.S. workers in computer and math fields have largely stagnated since 2000. http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/10/12/silicon-valley-diversity-tech-hiring-computer-science-graduates-african-american-hispanic/14684211/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/10/12/silicon-valley... > SAN FRANCISCO – Top universities turn out black and Hispanic computer science and computer engineering graduates at twice the rate that leading technology companies hire them, a USA TODAY analysis shows. http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myth-of-the-science-and-engineering-shortage/284359/ http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myt... > A compelling body of research is now available, from many leading academic researchers and from respected research organizations such as the National Bureau of Economic Research, the RAND Corporation, and the Urban Institute. No one has been able to find any evidence indicating current widespread labor market shortages or hiring difficulties in science and engineering occupations that require bachelors degrees or higher, although some are forecasting high growth in occupations that require post-high school training but not a bachelors degree. http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/civil-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/civil-en... > $82,050 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electric... > $93,260 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c... > $77,550 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/chemical-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/chemical... > $96,940 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/biomedical-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/biomedic... > $86,950 per year All you've really shown is CS has matured to the point where a good software engineer is on par with other engineering fields in terms of business value and their salary is starting to reflect that. That isn't a sign of a shortage but rather an indication the quality of engineer is more important than the quantity of engineer.
- jeffbush 11y ago
  "us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them" Jonathan Rothwell is an analyst at the Brookings Institution. The US News article is a summary of a research report he published based on an empirical study of job openings. His research is also cited in the BLS report I linked to, so I don't believe there is contention. I believe his methodology is more pertinent on this topic, since he looked at how long it took to fill positions rather than second order metrics like salaries. "and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs." "unless you are arguing 32% of CS graduates are completely worthless?" I didn't read that as 32% of CS graduates couldn't find jobs. It was 32% of CS graduates who couldn't find jobs attributed it to lack of open positions. More below: "All you've really shown is CS has matured to the point where a good software engineer is on par with other engineering fields in terms of business value and their salary is starting to reflect that. That isn't a sign of a shortage but rather an indication the quality of engineer is more important than the quantity of engineer." I don't think the maturing of CS is a recent phenomenon. Fred Brooks wrote about quality and output of software engineers 40 years ago. What has changed recently is a rapid growth in the number of CS positions: http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s... Since it takes time for people to build skills, I'd assert this naturally results in a shortage of more senior engineers. Every company has a distribution of new hires (that require training and mentoring) and experienced engineers. I see this as an argument to increase H1Bs to bring in experienced engineers. Although we have seen an uptick in the number of CS graduates in the US, it has historically been low, and dropped after the last downturn: http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/american-college-students-aren-t-flocking-to-computer-science.html http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/america... On the other hand, other countries like China and India have been churning out significantly more CS graduates for years (Table 1.1): http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineering_Graduates_in_China_and_India_-_EngineeringUK_-_March_2012.pdf#page=5 http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineerin... Which would create natural pressure for CS engineers to move to the US. [edit: clarified a sentence that didn't make much sense]
  - 11y ago

fweespeech 11y ago

1+2) Yeah, the problem is I don't really judge people on their intent but rather the effect of their actions and whether it was reasonably predictable in terms of outcome. I feel in this case, it was, and therefore it is a problem they should be held responsible for regardless. 4) Yes, but its a failure to tap into the rest of the country that is the problem rather than a shortage of labor. --- 3) You are confusing an overabundance of non-STEM employment with a shortage in STEM employment. "No wage growth" is abnormal and not be the expectation with the kind of productivity gains we are seeing through technological advancement. [i.e. Technology is advancing at least as fast as it has in the past, therefore 0% wage growth is representative of a surplus] From your first link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem-surplus-yes-and-yes.htm http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem... > Looking at the STEM labor market, Salzman and colleagues concluded that, for every two students graduating with a U.S. STEM degree, only one is employed in STEM and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs. That right there destroyed your entire argument. Even your only credible source [No, us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them] agrees there isn't a shortage. I'm sorry but, frankly, as I've told literally every other person who has tried to argue your position...its simply not reality and the only real backing you have is a single opinion article by a non-Economist who has no clue what they are talking about and that is clear from the first link you provided which basically said your first link can't be correct [unless you are arguing 32% of CS graduates are completely worthless?]. http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-i... > Even in the computer and IT industry, the sector that employs the most STEM workers and is expected to grow the most over the next 5 to 10 years, not everyone who wants a job can find one. A recent study by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), a liberal-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C., found that more than a third of recent computer science graduates aren’t working in their chosen major; of that group, almost a third say the reason is that there are no jobs available. > And yet, alongside such dire projections, you’ll also find reports suggesting just the opposite—that there are more STEM workers than suitable jobs. One study found, for example, that wages for U.S. workers in computer and math fields have largely stagnated since 2000. http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/10/12/silicon-valley-diversity-tech-hiring-computer-science-graduates-african-american-hispanic/14684211/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/10/12/silicon-valley... > SAN FRANCISCO – Top universities turn out black and Hispanic computer science and computer engineering graduates at twice the rate that leading technology companies hire them, a USA TODAY analysis shows. http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myth-of-the-science-and-engineering-shortage/284359/ http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myt... > A compelling body of research is now available, from many leading academic researchers and from respected research organizations such as the National Bureau of Economic Research, the RAND Corporation, and the Urban Institute. No one has been able to find any evidence indicating current widespread labor market shortages or hiring difficulties in science and engineering occupations that require bachelors degrees or higher, although some are forecasting high growth in occupations that require post-high school training but not a bachelors degree. http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/civil-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/civil-en... > $82,050 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electric... > $93,260 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c... > $77,550 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/chemical-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/chemical... > $96,940 per year http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/biomedical-engineers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/biomedic... > $86,950 per year All you've really shown is CS has matured to the point where a good software engineer is on par with other engineering fields in terms of business value and their salary is starting to reflect that. That isn't a sign of a shortage but rather an indication the quality of engineer is more important than the quantity of engineer.

jeffbush 11y ago
"us news commentators aren't credible when various Economists and the BLS contradicts them" Jonathan Rothwell is an analyst at the Brookings Institution. The US News article is a summary of a research report he published based on an empirical study of job openings. His research is also cited in the BLS report I linked to, so I don't believe there is contention. I believe his methodology is more pertinent on this topic, since he looked at how long it took to fill positions rather than second order metrics like salaries. "and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs." "unless you are arguing 32% of CS graduates are completely worthless?" I didn't read that as 32% of CS graduates couldn't find jobs. It was 32% of CS graduates who couldn't find jobs attributed it to lack of open positions. More below: "All you've really shown is CS has matured to the point where a good software engineer is on par with other engineering fields in terms of business value and their salary is starting to reflect that. That isn't a sign of a shortage but rather an indication the quality of engineer is more important than the quantity of engineer." I don't think the maturing of CS is a recent phenomenon. Fred Brooks wrote about quality and output of software engineers 40 years ago. What has changed recently is a rapid growth in the number of CS positions: http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s... Since it takes time for people to build skills, I'd assert this naturally results in a shortage of more senior engineers. Every company has a distribution of new hires (that require training and mentoring) and experienced engineers. I see this as an argument to increase H1Bs to bring in experienced engineers. Although we have seen an uptick in the number of CS graduates in the US, it has historically been low, and dropped after the last downturn: http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/american-college-students-aren-t-flocking-to-computer-science.html http://www.itworld.com/article/2833432/it-management/america... On the other hand, other countries like China and India have been churning out significantly more CS graduates for years (Table 1.1): http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineering_Graduates_in_China_and_India_-_EngineeringUK_-_March_2012.pdf#page=5 http://www.engineeringuk.com/_resources/documents/Engineerin... Which would create natural pressure for CS engineers to move to the US. [edit: clarified a sentence that didn't make much sense]
- 11y ago