I think many people will not only start to look harder at lower-priced phones, but they will consider going longer between upgrades, and become more interested

I think many people will not only start to look harder at lower-priced phones, but they will consider going longer between upgrades, and become more interested in second-hand phones. The biggest thing going on here, in my opinion, is that there is now a decoupling between "device" and "plan" in the consumer's mind where there was previously a very strong coupling. Savvy users have been able to buy a phone somewhere besides an AT&T store for a long time, but up until now it's never been a normal/default choice compared to going into an AT&T store, buying a phone there and signing a bunch of stuff that involves contracts and plan changes and fees. The default expectation now is that I should be able to plug a SIM into a phone and start using it without having to consult anyone, make account changes, pay fees or other BS.