Not clear what you mean in your edit, but you might be reading too much into the futures price. The futures market by itself doesn't provide a magical way of p

Not clear what you mean in your edit, but you might be reading too much into the futures price. The futures market by itself doesn't provide a magical way of predicting the price of oil in 2017. Roughly, since oil can be stored the best predictor we have for the price of oil in December 2017 is the current spot price, adjusted for borrowing costs and storage costs. Let's say the current price is $40, and it costs $10 to store a barrel for 2 years. If the 2017 price were too high, say $100, you could make a profit by borrowing $50, buying a barrel and storing it, and selling a futures contract today; in 2017 you would collect $100, pay back $50 + interest, and would still make a profit. So -- again roughly -- the futures price is as good a predictor as the current spot price. E.g. if we had an oracle that told us of a sudden shortage in 2017, that would cause an increase the futures price, but it would also immediately cause an increase in the current spot price.