4 ms·

Until battery tech gets within a decent percentage of a gas tank. Commercial batteries are currently worse than gas tanks, but catching up fast. If they get to

by iofj 11y ago

Until battery tech gets within a decent percentage of a gas tank. Commercial batteries are currently worse than gas tanks, but catching up fast. If they get to 20% volume/weight/price of a gas tank I would predict a switch is going to happen very very fast. Currently commercial batteries are price limited (about the price of a gas tank + filling up the gas tank 400 times, which would keep a normal car moving for 5-10 years), and weight limited at about 5% of the energy/weight of a gas tank. Given how it's evolving, I'd expect another 2-3 years before the necessary technology becomes available. I think 20% will be about the turning point because while gas tanks provide a 1000km range, if you can charge at home, then what's the problem with 200km range, decreasing to 160km over 2-3 years ? Especially if you can solar charge (and combined with a house battery ... watch out) And Teslas don't count. Anything over 20000$ starting price just isn't going to start the migration.

_nedR 11y ago
Its not just the batteries and cars. Can the grid really handle the huge increase in demand ? How much investment needs to be done to upgrade it? How long will that take?
- semi-extrinsic 11y ago
  And not just the main grid, which is not that hard to upgrade, but we're talking about also upgrading the grid and transformers on every street in the western world.
- danans 11y ago
  The grid should be fine with a few upgrades and implementation of charging strategies: "The short-term impacts for most utilities should be minimal and localized. There is a possibility, however, of isolated impacts on some distribution transformers and secondary drops, particularly in neighborhoods with older distribution systems including underground systems." http://et.epri.com/Communications_Potential_Impacts_of_Vehicles_on_the_Grid_2011.html http://et.epri.com/Communications_Potential_Impacts_of_Vehic... Edit: added quote.
hueving 11y ago
That won't cut it for industrial use (trucking, airlines, shipping, etc). For these things where fuel is a major cost, a swap to batteries is untenable until they are cheaper or equal either via heavy carbon taxes or an improvement in battery tech well beyond the 20% number you have in mind.
ArleneBarlow 11y ago
>If they get to 20% volume/weight/price of a gas tank I would predict a switch is going to happen very very fast. What exactly are you saying here? Do you mean that battery would be 20% the volume or weight or price of a gas tank (extremely unlikely) or that it would be 20% in unit of volume per weight per price (i don't even know what that is) or in the later part you seem to imply 20% capacity (which unlike 20% weight,price,volume, would be a disadvantage). it's very confusing

by iofj 11y ago

_nedR 11y ago

Its not just the batteries and cars. Can the grid really handle the huge increase in demand ? How much investment needs to be done to upgrade it? How long will that take?

semi-extrinsic 11y ago
And not just the main grid, which is not that hard to upgrade, but we're talking about also upgrading the grid and transformers on every street in the western world.
danans 11y ago
The grid should be fine with a few upgrades and implementation of charging strategies: "The short-term impacts for most utilities should be minimal and localized. There is a possibility, however, of isolated impacts on some distribution transformers and secondary drops, particularly in neighborhoods with older distribution systems including underground systems." http://et.epri.com/Communications_Potential_Impacts_of_Vehicles_on_the_Grid_2011.html http://et.epri.com/Communications_Potential_Impacts_of_Vehic... Edit: added quote.

hueving 11y ago

That won't cut it for industrial use (trucking, airlines, shipping, etc). For these things where fuel is a major cost, a swap to batteries is untenable until they are cheaper or equal either via heavy carbon taxes or an improvement in battery tech well beyond the 20% number you have in mind.

ArleneBarlow 11y ago

>If they get to 20% volume/weight/price of a gas tank I would predict a switch is going to happen very very fast. What exactly are you saying here? Do you mean that battery would be 20% the volume or weight or price of a gas tank (extremely unlikely) or that it would be 20% in unit of volume per weight per price (i don't even know what that is) or in the later part you seem to imply 20% capacity (which unlike 20% weight,price,volume, would be a disadvantage). it's very confusing