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Specifically, the seismologist estimates are a 10% probability each decade that the Alaskan Way viaduct will collapse in an earthquake. It's already a big heav

Specifically, the seismologist estimates are a 10% probability each decade that the Alaskan Way viaduct will collapse in an earthquake. It's already a big heavy mass of concrete and steel, and was reinforced after the last earthquake, it's hard to imagine reinforcing it more.

CamperBob2 11y ago
It's already a big heavy mass of concrete and steel, and was reinforced after the last earthquake, it's hard to imagine reinforcing it more. We could rebuild and reinforce it on Mars for what the SR99 tunnel debacle is eventually going to cost us, in both direct and long-term economic impact. I'm only being slightly hyperbolic here. By way of example, the Big Dig cost about 40% more than NASA's annual budget... and as I pointed out earlier, the Big Dig was an improvement project. The SR99 tunnel is not.
- marshray 11y ago
  I don't think it's helpful to be hyperbolic. It only took a couple of minutes to look up some real numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_Way_Viaduct_replacement_tunnel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_Way_Viaduct_replacemen... "The project is estimated to cost US$4.25 billion, with $2.8 billion coming from the state and federal governments" http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bertha-restarts-after-two-years-of-delays/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bert... "overall costs for repair, including excavation of the giant repair-access vault, are expected to exceed $143 million." http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140422-mars-mission-manned-cost-science-space/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140422-mars-... "The expert panel puts the total cost of a 20-year program culminating in a manned mission to Mars in the range of $80 to $100 billion."
  - CamperBob2 11y ago
    Jeez, on an annual basis, that Mars mission isn't looking so bad! That's Apollo program money -- even less if you account for it in 1960s dollars. My guess is that I'm personally not ever going to walk on Mars or drive through a hypothetical SR99 tunnel, so it's largely a moot point. Keep in mind that the Big Dig's original cost estimate was something like $3 billion. Turned out to be closer to $24 billion. We're not very good at these things, it seems.
    - marshray 11y ago
      Really? I think it's far more likely the highway tunnel project will be completed than I will personally walk on Mars. I guess I'm new to the West coast and Seattle area. What is it about this project that has everybody just flipping out of their minds?
      - CamperBob2 11y ago
        The comments in the article actually do a pretty good job of conveying various points of view: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bertha-restarts-after-two-years-of-delays/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bert... I live north of King County, so I don't have any personal insights beyond what I've already posted. My main concern is how much responsibility the state will have to bear for cost overruns. SR99 is technically a state-level project, even though it has little relevance to anyone outside Seattle. It's safe to say Seattle will try very hard to make the rest of us pay for their mistakes.
        deciplex 11y ago
        It's safe to say Seattle will try very hard to make the rest of us pay for their mistakes. IIRC the people of Seattle and their government did not exactly push hard for the current plan? There was a referendum in which both the tunnel option and reinforcing the viaduct did not garner popular support, although reinforcement got more votes than a tunnel. I think in this case "it's safe to say everyone is going to have to pay for everyone's mistake" is more fair. And certainly SR99 has impact outside Seattle, since Seattle is a huge part of the WA economy and basically anything that has impact in Seattle, has impact in WA.
      - deciplex 11y ago
        I haven't lived in Seattle for over a decade, so take the following with a grain of salt, but I was there for the earthquake that damaged the viaduct in the first place, and had followed another project which was winding down at that time, the outcome of which I think plays significantly into the frustration seen here on the part of Seattle residents. Basically, it's because it's the second project in two decades where the will of Seattle voters has been totally ignored in favor of moneyed interests and the state government fucking with (and fucking over) Seattle infrastructure. The first project which ended up (finally) with a pretty sorry excuse for a light rail system between downtown Seattle and the airport, was constructed only after intense lobbying against which was, for a time, a much more popular (and extensive) monorail project. Several referendums were conducted over the course of about seven or eight years starting in the mid-nineties, and they went something like this: 1. Referendum for light rail - passes. (much faffing about) 2. Referendum for monorail instead - passes. (faffing about) 3. Another referendum for monorail - passes. (faffing about) 4. Yet another fucking referendum for monorail - barely passes. (faffing about) 5. One last referendum to actually go ahead and, you know, build the damn thing, amidst heavy lobbying against - fails. And then Seattle gets a shitty light rail system that no one uses and hardly goes anywhere. Strangely, the moneyed interests that lobbied most against the monorail, become even more moneyed. And meanwhile, of course, other forms of public transportation i.e. buses have been allowed to rot. And then right at the tail end of that mess came the earthquake, and the pressing need to overhaul/replace the AWV, and pretty much all the same political fuckery came out and made a total mess of that process in pretty much the same fashion as it had public transport. I think, at the end of the day, there is a perception - and it is not totally incorrect - that there are a lot of registered voters in other parts of Washington State, particularly the eastern half of the state, who hate the Seattle metro area and the people who live there, and that this is reflected in the state government, and that when it comes time for infrastructure projects which will help to grow that part of the state which contributes most to Washington's economy, there is little political will in the state government to do the right thing. And so the success of Seattle is often in spite of the apathy, and occasionally even the active antipathy, of the rest of the state.

CamperBob2 11y ago

It's already a big heavy mass of concrete and steel, and was reinforced after the last earthquake, it's hard to imagine reinforcing it more. We could rebuild and reinforce it on Mars for what the SR99 tunnel debacle is eventually going to cost us, in both direct and long-term economic impact. I'm only being slightly hyperbolic here. By way of example, the Big Dig cost about 40% more than NASA's annual budget... and as I pointed out earlier, the Big Dig was an improvement project. The SR99 tunnel is not.

marshray 11y ago
I don't think it's helpful to be hyperbolic. It only took a couple of minutes to look up some real numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_Way_Viaduct_replacement_tunnel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_Way_Viaduct_replacemen... "The project is estimated to cost US$4.25 billion, with $2.8 billion coming from the state and federal governments" http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bertha-restarts-after-two-years-of-delays/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bert... "overall costs for repair, including excavation of the giant repair-access vault, are expected to exceed $143 million." http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140422-mars-mission-manned-cost-science-space/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140422-mars-... "The expert panel puts the total cost of a 20-year program culminating in a manned mission to Mars in the range of $80 to $100 billion."
- CamperBob2 11y ago
  Jeez, on an annual basis, that Mars mission isn't looking so bad! That's Apollo program money -- even less if you account for it in 1960s dollars. My guess is that I'm personally not ever going to walk on Mars or drive through a hypothetical SR99 tunnel, so it's largely a moot point. Keep in mind that the Big Dig's original cost estimate was something like $3 billion. Turned out to be closer to $24 billion. We're not very good at these things, it seems.
  - marshray 11y ago
    Really? I think it's far more likely the highway tunnel project will be completed than I will personally walk on Mars. I guess I'm new to the West coast and Seattle area. What is it about this project that has everybody just flipping out of their minds?
    - CamperBob2 11y ago
      The comments in the article actually do a pretty good job of conveying various points of view: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bertha-restarts-after-two-years-of-delays/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/bert... I live north of King County, so I don't have any personal insights beyond what I've already posted. My main concern is how much responsibility the state will have to bear for cost overruns. SR99 is technically a state-level project, even though it has little relevance to anyone outside Seattle. It's safe to say Seattle will try very hard to make the rest of us pay for their mistakes.
      - deciplex 11y ago
        It's safe to say Seattle will try very hard to make the rest of us pay for their mistakes. IIRC the people of Seattle and their government did not exactly push hard for the current plan? There was a referendum in which both the tunnel option and reinforcing the viaduct did not garner popular support, although reinforcement got more votes than a tunnel. I think in this case "it's safe to say everyone is going to have to pay for everyone's mistake" is more fair. And certainly SR99 has impact outside Seattle, since Seattle is a huge part of the WA economy and basically anything that has impact in Seattle, has impact in WA.
    - deciplex 11y ago
      I haven't lived in Seattle for over a decade, so take the following with a grain of salt, but I was there for the earthquake that damaged the viaduct in the first place, and had followed another project which was winding down at that time, the outcome of which I think plays significantly into the frustration seen here on the part of Seattle residents. Basically, it's because it's the second project in two decades where the will of Seattle voters has been totally ignored in favor of moneyed interests and the state government fucking with (and fucking over) Seattle infrastructure. The first project which ended up (finally) with a pretty sorry excuse for a light rail system between downtown Seattle and the airport, was constructed only after intense lobbying against which was, for a time, a much more popular (and extensive) monorail project. Several referendums were conducted over the course of about seven or eight years starting in the mid-nineties, and they went something like this: 1. Referendum for light rail - passes. (much faffing about) 2. Referendum for monorail instead - passes. (faffing about) 3. Another referendum for monorail - passes. (faffing about) 4. Yet another fucking referendum for monorail - barely passes. (faffing about) 5. One last referendum to actually go ahead and, you know, build the damn thing, amidst heavy lobbying against - fails. And then Seattle gets a shitty light rail system that no one uses and hardly goes anywhere. Strangely, the moneyed interests that lobbied most against the monorail, become even more moneyed. And meanwhile, of course, other forms of public transportation i.e. buses have been allowed to rot. And then right at the tail end of that mess came the earthquake, and the pressing need to overhaul/replace the AWV, and pretty much all the same political fuckery came out and made a total mess of that process in pretty much the same fashion as it had public transport. I think, at the end of the day, there is a perception - and it is not totally incorrect - that there are a lot of registered voters in other parts of Washington State, particularly the eastern half of the state, who hate the Seattle metro area and the people who live there, and that this is reflected in the state government, and that when it comes time for infrastructure projects which will help to grow that part of the state which contributes most to Washington's economy, there is little political will in the state government to do the right thing. And so the success of Seattle is often in spite of the apathy, and occasionally even the active antipathy, of the rest of the state.