I think that this trader's recovery had a lot more to do with skill than others are giving him credit for. His key insight was the following: "It occurred to

I think that this trader's recovery had a lot more to do with skill than others are giving him credit for. His key insight was the following: "It occurred to me that Mexico might be willing to restructure its deal—selling us back the option it owned, and buying a new one—in a way that would lock in billions of profits for the country, while giving me a much needed windfall too." Many traders (especially inexperienced ones) suffer from a bias to sell their winners too quickly, so that they can lock in the satisfaction of making a winning trade. By putting himself in the other side's shoes, this trader was able to find one of the few ways out of his predicament.