A lot of traders have the "illusion of confidence," in fact most of them do. They have good year or two and think it's the result of skill rather than luck. Tha

A lot of traders have the "illusion of confidence," in fact most of them do. They have good year or two and think it's the result of skill rather than luck. That confidence causes them to place riskier bets which then implode. Hedge funds follow this curve all the time... that's why you hear about massive profits one year and then next year the fund implodes. Beating the market (after fees) over and over again is something only a small elite can do. Most of the rest of the finance industry is full of people with vastly inflated views of their own abilities.