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Wouldn't commercializing these tools reduce his own potential earnings?

drewmate 11y ago
Not sure what kind of a privacy policy his software will have, but I imagine the aggregate data of thousands of people using his software (if he has access to it) might be even better than just using it by himself.
- geomark 11y ago
  That would be very smart, evil, but smart. He could identify strategies superior to his own and then either play them himself or feed them back into the product and charge for premium features.
  - huac 11y ago
    It's exactly what the DFS insiders were accused of doing.
has2k1 11y ago
As the top ranked player, selling his "methods" could be more lucrative than his competition earnings. If the he considers the barrier to be sufficiently low, then he would expect his earnings to drop with time. There are ways of looking at it that make his decision rational.
- jsprogrammer 11y ago
  Wouldn't sales drop with time as the market is saturated with identical players?
  - has2k1 11y ago
    If you have high earnings in a market that you think has a low barrier of entry, you can expect worthy competitors to show up. If you are the worthy competitor (No. 2) but maybe just cannot dethrone the number one, then you could decide to sell methods that make you a worthy competitor. When more worthy competitors join because the No. 2 guy decided sell his secrets, top guy makes even less as the each participant's winnings are drawn from the pool. In this case profit margin is proportional to the difference in skill. If you are the top guy, you could look on as the No. 2 guy establishes a solutions market (as your profits drop) or you could start the solutions market. It seems like if you are the top guy, the main consideration is How special/unique is my secret sauce? The answer to that and guides the second, When is the right time to become a solutions provider? There will be market saturation with either your product or that of another entity. With time the game approaches to pure gambling and the money paid for the solutions becomes a Vig of sorts! Along the way sales would drop according.
deleted 11y ago
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Spooky23 11y ago
They also reduce his potential exposure. If he is really making money gambling, those earnings are profits from something that is most likely a criminal enterprise. When bookies get shut down, the customers don't get their money back. Better to sell tools.
- aianus 11y ago
  > When bookies get shut down, the customers don't get their money back. Recent history would indicate otherwise: http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/pokerstars-processing-u-s-player-cashouts-18949/ http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/pokerstars-processing-u-s-play...
  - Spooky23 11y ago
    Poker and bookmaking are different things.

Not sure what kind of a privacy policy his software will have, but I imagine the aggregate data of thousands of people using his software (if he has access to it) might be even better than just using it by himself.

geomark 11y ago
That would be very smart, evil, but smart. He could identify strategies superior to his own and then either play them himself or feed them back into the product and charge for premium features.
- huac 11y ago
  It's exactly what the DFS insiders were accused of doing.

has2k1 11y ago

As the top ranked player, selling his "methods" could be more lucrative than his competition earnings. If the he considers the barrier to be sufficiently low, then he would expect his earnings to drop with time. There are ways of looking at it that make his decision rational.

jsprogrammer 11y ago
Wouldn't sales drop with time as the market is saturated with identical players?
- has2k1 11y ago
  If you have high earnings in a market that you think has a low barrier of entry, you can expect worthy competitors to show up. If you are the worthy competitor (No. 2) but maybe just cannot dethrone the number one, then you could decide to sell methods that make you a worthy competitor. When more worthy competitors join because the No. 2 guy decided sell his secrets, top guy makes even less as the each participant's winnings are drawn from the pool. In this case profit margin is proportional to the difference in skill. If you are the top guy, you could look on as the No. 2 guy establishes a solutions market (as your profits drop) or you could start the solutions market. It seems like if you are the top guy, the main consideration is How special/unique is my secret sauce? The answer to that and guides the second, When is the right time to become a solutions provider? There will be market saturation with either your product or that of another entity. With time the game approaches to pure gambling and the money paid for the solutions becomes a Vig of sorts! Along the way sales would drop according.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

Spooky23 11y ago

They also reduce his potential exposure. If he is really making money gambling, those earnings are profits from something that is most likely a criminal enterprise. When bookies get shut down, the customers don't get their money back. Better to sell tools.

aianus 11y ago
> When bookies get shut down, the customers don't get their money back. Recent history would indicate otherwise: http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/pokerstars-processing-u-s-player-cashouts-18949/ http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/pokerstars-processing-u-s-play...
- Spooky23 11y ago
  Poker and bookmaking are different things.