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There have been several editions of the Global Trends reports, all interesting both for what they got right and what they got wrong. Please note that the repor
by drallison 11y ago
There have been several editions of the Global Trends reports, all interesting both for what they got right and what they got wrong. Please note that the reports are not "predictions" but "forecasts". The methodology tries to identify trends and drivers that are thought to be significant in the evolving future. For a few of them, scenarios are created to explore how different interacting trends and drivers might create a future.
HN readers interested in learning more about forecasting might read Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting, http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Prediction/dp/0804136696 http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi..., which has been justifiably on many must read lists.