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Are long-term GDP growth predictions ever anything other than completely wrong guesses? Why do we take any of this seriously? Even the Federal Reserve and the
by vox_mollis 11y ago
Are long-term GDP growth predictions ever anything other than completely wrong guesses?
Why do we take any of this seriously? Even the Federal Reserve and the BEA estimates going out a single year are usually little better than noise.
- fauigerzigerk 11y agoMaking a prediction for one year may be more difficult than making a prediction over 10 years. Over 10 years, structural factors will dominate, but in any single year something like inventory fluctuations or commodity price jumps/slumps can make a prediction look very incorrect.
- hodwik 11y agoRight, this is the same principle as weather vs. climate predictions.