4 ms·

Fifteen years ago the CIA tried to predict the world in 2015

10 points by bootload 11y ago

Area12 11y ago
I can't remember the details, and can't find it in google, but ... in my possibly faulty memory the FDR administration produced a similar report in the 1930s on the future of the USA. They missed five keys future game-changing events that unfolded not long after: 1. The rise of the superhighway and the importance of personal long-distance travel and trucking 2. The rise of cheap air travel and shipment 3. Nuclear weapons and energy, and the impact of nuclear weapons on geopolitics And two others I can't remember. Probably at least one of those was WWII. My point is that producing reports of even near-future trends is HARD. It is very likely multiple game-changing events will not be foreseen.
drallison 11y ago
There have been several editions of the Global Trends reports, all interesting both for what they got right and what they got wrong. Please note that the reports are not "predictions" but "forecasts". The methodology tries to identify trends and drivers that are thought to be significant in the evolving future. For a few of them, scenarios are created to explore how different interacting trends and drivers might create a future. HN readers interested in learning more about forecasting might read Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting, http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Prediction/dp/0804136696 http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi..., which has been justifiably on many must read lists.
drallison 11y ago
There have been several different Global Trends reports. Currently in progress is Global Trends 2035, which is being prepared by crowd sourcing rather than a team of experts. See http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-int... for a description. The earlier reports (2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030) are linked at the bottom of the page. Other reports can be found at http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-nic-publications http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-int....

10 points by bootload 11y ago

I can't remember the details, and can't find it in google, but ... in my possibly faulty memory the FDR administration produced a similar report in the 1930s on the future of the USA. They missed five keys future game-changing events that unfolded not long after: 1. The rise of the superhighway and the importance of personal long-distance travel and trucking 2. The rise of cheap air travel and shipment 3. Nuclear weapons and energy, and the impact of nuclear weapons on geopolitics And two others I can't remember. Probably at least one of those was WWII. My point is that producing reports of even near-future trends is HARD. It is very likely multiple game-changing events will not be foreseen.

drallison 11y ago

There have been several editions of the Global Trends reports, all interesting both for what they got right and what they got wrong. Please note that the reports are not "predictions" but "forecasts". The methodology tries to identify trends and drivers that are thought to be significant in the evolving future. For a few of them, scenarios are created to explore how different interacting trends and drivers might create a future. HN readers interested in learning more about forecasting might read Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting, http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Prediction/dp/0804136696 http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi..., which has been justifiably on many must read lists.

drallison 11y ago

There have been several different Global Trends reports. Currently in progress is Global Trends 2035, which is being prepared by crowd sourcing rather than a team of experts. See http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-int... for a description. The earlier reports (2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030) are linked at the bottom of the page. Other reports can be found at http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-nic-publications http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-int....