5 ms·

I understand the argument about the sociological reputation trap, but a little more reading about Rossi's research turns up some very fishy evidence: https://e

by mizzao 11y ago

I understand the argument about the sociological reputation trap, but a little more reading about Rossi's research turns up some very fishy evidence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer In particular, the copper supposedly generated by the fusion of hydrogen and nickel has an isotopic composition very similar to that of natural copper, rather than what one would expect from byproducts of nuclear reactions. As a result, it's much more likely that copper comes from a conventional source rather than actual nuclear fusion. It also doesn't help that Rossi has been convicted of fraud for purportedly inventing dubious devices in the past. In particular, he "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Rossi_(entrepreneur) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Rossi_(entrepreneur) I'm all for avoiding groupthink in scientific research, but this might not be the right story on which to base that argument.

sparkzilla 11y ago
It's somewhat ironic to say you want to avoid groupthink and then to cite Wikipedia as your source.
- leoc 11y ago
  Well, here's another source. Here's what the most prominent full-time pro-LENR advocate/journalist these days thinks of Rossi: http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/Andrea-Rossi-Energy-Catalyzer-Investigation-Index.shtml http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/Andrea-Rossi-Energ...
  - marshray 11y ago
    I was open minded about Rossi and the 'E Cat' until I saw that video. Like, where is the measuring equipment? He has a multimeter measuring the current coming out of the wall, but is not taking a simultaneous measurement of the voltage. Sure, OK, I guess we'll assume it's 220 V from the power company, and figure it's drawing about 750 W (about half the power of a full size microwave oven). But then on the output side, he has a rubber hose with a tiny amount of steam coming out. Maybe even less that what you would expect from a 750W tea kettle. They have to hold it up against a tshirt to measure it. They have a thermometer on the input water reservoir but for some reason don't even bother measuring either the temperature or mass-flow rate of the output? This video is not demonstrating the measurement techniques of a credible scientist. I would not let this guy service my home air conditioning unit.
- alanh 11y ago
  you’re not wrong there is potentially irony there, but … it’s not like Wikipedia doesn’t have sources you can follow. Linking to Wikipedia is linking to a consensus summary & portal to more links
  - sparkzilla 11y ago
    I take no sides in the cold-fusion discussion. The irony comment was meant as an aside. More enlightened souls like you and I will check the sources. However, Wikipedia pages are not made by "consensus"; they are invariably shaped by the most powerful group of editors on the page.
vinceguidry 11y ago
> It also doesn't help that Rossi has been convicted of fraud for purportedly inventing dubious devices in the past. In particular, he "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment. I feel like if someone has done this once, anyone taking them seriously again, deserves to lose their shirt. What, he suddenly reformed and is now doing real science? In what universe does this happen?
- marshray 11y ago
  He seems to characterize the charges as being more 'tax fraud' stemming from environmental damage caused by his failed effort to develop a more efficient waste incenerator. Maybe he was scamming investors too, but he seems to be able to spin it in a way that plausibly he was not.
- dinkumthinkum 11y ago
  I guess everyone can remember this if you ever make a mistake! I think people can have second chances, if he products verifiable results then it is what it is, sure he will have to deal with skepticism but totally rejection forever is a bit much and possibly a waste.
- Cacti 11y ago
  Wait, what? I thought this was about the science and the results, not about the person.
  - jeffdavis 11y ago
    That's true as long as everyone is acting in good faith.
    - mcguire 11y ago
      Most of science is not particularly good at handling people not acting in good faith.
      - 11y ago
ChuckMcM 11y ago
And that is, what I think is Rossi's biggest problem. Very showy, very secretive. The explanation I've heard is that he has something which works (for some definition of works) but doesn't know how it works or why. And because of that he is walking around afraid that if too many details get out about how it works then someone smarter then him will jump in and patent/publish the why and then be forever known as the person who "invented" this technology. I don't know if that is true, but listening to Rossi talk and what he has written it seems like it could be true. But elephant in the room is that if you can produce a MW of usable energy out of this thing then why not run it 24/7 and generate your quarter million a year in revenue (pretty much any market will buy baseload power at $30/MWhr. Use your first quarter million to build another one in year two, then use the half million from year two to build two more for year 3 and use the million dollars you get in year 3 to build four more, and the two million dollars from year 3 to build 8 more. Etc. Easy to sell shares in a company that is doubling in revenue each year and will continue to do so until it reaches 25% of baseload power (1TW or about a billion a year in revenue). Either way, the way in which Rossi's e-cat story is playing out it screams hoax not breakthrough. That has nothing to do with the "reputation" of cold fusion and everything to do with the difference between seeing breakthroughs get promoted and hoaxes get promoted.
- marshray 11y ago
  Another possible explanation is: He is really not very good at measuring energy input and heat output. He built something and confused himself into thinking it was producing more energy than it consumes. He took some money from investors to develop the technology. He spent much of the research money, eventually to realize that his device does not, in fact, produce energy. His investors now want their money back and he is concerned they are going to break his legs. So at this point he has no choice but to maintain his original claims for as long as possible. Appearing now to be bumbling and incompetent may be preferable to appearing accurate and precise with measurements.
  - ChuckMcM 11y ago
    A reasonable guess, the only counter factual is that a number of people who are not fools seem to have convinced themselves that there is something there but they don't know what. And as the article points out there are a number of labs around the world that have independently seen results that were anomalous with respect to the current understanding of how things should work chemically. So if nothing else there is a really good parlor trick in there somewhere, but even tricks need an explanation.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
themartorana 11y ago
This guy is a fraud and known pathological liar, but he got entry to the Unites States because what - he's European and has the label "entrepreneur?" But whoa, refugees? No thanks. Excuse the snark, but why is this guy here and why is anyone lending him any credibility at all?
Nutmog 11y ago
Perhaps being convicted of fraud means his reputation is already damaged so he has little to lose by being in the reputation trap. If he had a clean record, he might keep away from the trap. In the end though, it doesn't really matter if he's wrong but we would suffer a huge loss if he's right but can't get it finished.
justonepost 11y ago
A huge problem is that people think cold fusion is just about the eCat. There's also this thing called Muon catalyzed fusion which was the first type of fusion to be labeled "Cold Fusion". It's a proven phenomenon the DOE provides grants for research into this.
JoeCoder_ 11y ago
[Rossi] "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment Wow, he is literally the villian Captain Planet fought in every single episode.
genericacct 11y ago
You clearly have no idea of what the legislative landscape looks like in italy wrt environmental protection. Results have been duplicated by two independent institutions of which one is the oldest university on the planet. Im guessing professional envy may be the biggest problem Rossi faces..

by mizzao 11y ago

sparkzilla 11y ago

It's somewhat ironic to say you want to avoid groupthink and then to cite Wikipedia as your source.

leoc 11y ago
Well, here's another source. Here's what the most prominent full-time pro-LENR advocate/journalist these days thinks of Rossi: http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/Andrea-Rossi-Energy-Catalyzer-Investigation-Index.shtml http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/Andrea-Rossi-Energ...
- marshray 11y ago
  I was open minded about Rossi and the 'E Cat' until I saw that video. Like, where is the measuring equipment? He has a multimeter measuring the current coming out of the wall, but is not taking a simultaneous measurement of the voltage. Sure, OK, I guess we'll assume it's 220 V from the power company, and figure it's drawing about 750 W (about half the power of a full size microwave oven). But then on the output side, he has a rubber hose with a tiny amount of steam coming out. Maybe even less that what you would expect from a 750W tea kettle. They have to hold it up against a tshirt to measure it. They have a thermometer on the input water reservoir but for some reason don't even bother measuring either the temperature or mass-flow rate of the output? This video is not demonstrating the measurement techniques of a credible scientist. I would not let this guy service my home air conditioning unit.
alanh 11y ago
you’re not wrong there is potentially irony there, but … it’s not like Wikipedia doesn’t have sources you can follow. Linking to Wikipedia is linking to a consensus summary & portal to more links
- sparkzilla 11y ago
  I take no sides in the cold-fusion discussion. The irony comment was meant as an aside. More enlightened souls like you and I will check the sources. However, Wikipedia pages are not made by "consensus"; they are invariably shaped by the most powerful group of editors on the page.

vinceguidry 11y ago

> It also doesn't help that Rossi has been convicted of fraud for purportedly inventing dubious devices in the past. In particular, he "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment. I feel like if someone has done this once, anyone taking them seriously again, deserves to lose their shirt. What, he suddenly reformed and is now doing real science? In what universe does this happen?

marshray 11y ago
He seems to characterize the charges as being more 'tax fraud' stemming from environmental damage caused by his failed effort to develop a more efficient waste incenerator. Maybe he was scamming investors too, but he seems to be able to spin it in a way that plausibly he was not.
dinkumthinkum 11y ago
I guess everyone can remember this if you ever make a mistake! I think people can have second chances, if he products verifiable results then it is what it is, sure he will have to deal with skepticism but totally rejection forever is a bit much and possibly a waste.
Cacti 11y ago
Wait, what? I thought this was about the science and the results, not about the person.
- jeffdavis 11y ago
  That's true as long as everyone is acting in good faith.
  - mcguire 11y ago
    Most of science is not particularly good at handling people not acting in good faith.
    - 11y ago

ChuckMcM 11y ago

And that is, what I think is Rossi's biggest problem. Very showy, very secretive. The explanation I've heard is that he has something which works (for some definition of works) but doesn't know how it works or why. And because of that he is walking around afraid that if too many details get out about how it works then someone smarter then him will jump in and patent/publish the why and then be forever known as the person who "invented" this technology. I don't know if that is true, but listening to Rossi talk and what he has written it seems like it could be true. But elephant in the room is that if you can produce a MW of usable energy out of this thing then why not run it 24/7 and generate your quarter million a year in revenue (pretty much any market will buy baseload power at $30/MWhr. Use your first quarter million to build another one in year two, then use the half million from year two to build two more for year 3 and use the million dollars you get in year 3 to build four more, and the two million dollars from year 3 to build 8 more. Etc. Easy to sell shares in a company that is doubling in revenue each year and will continue to do so until it reaches 25% of baseload power (1TW or about a billion a year in revenue). Either way, the way in which Rossi's e-cat story is playing out it screams hoax not breakthrough. That has nothing to do with the "reputation" of cold fusion and everything to do with the difference between seeing breakthroughs get promoted and hoaxes get promoted.

marshray 11y ago
Another possible explanation is: He is really not very good at measuring energy input and heat output. He built something and confused himself into thinking it was producing more energy than it consumes. He took some money from investors to develop the technology. He spent much of the research money, eventually to realize that his device does not, in fact, produce energy. His investors now want their money back and he is concerned they are going to break his legs. So at this point he has no choice but to maintain his original claims for as long as possible. Appearing now to be bumbling and incompetent may be preferable to appearing accurate and precise with measurements.
- ChuckMcM 11y ago
  A reasonable guess, the only counter factual is that a number of people who are not fools seem to have convinced themselves that there is something there but they don't know what. And as the article points out there are a number of labs around the world that have independently seen results that were anomalous with respect to the current understanding of how things should work chemically. So if nothing else there is a really good parlor trick in there somewhere, but even tricks need an explanation.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

themartorana 11y ago

This guy is a fraud and known pathological liar, but he got entry to the Unites States because what - he's European and has the label "entrepreneur?" But whoa, refugees? No thanks. Excuse the snark, but why is this guy here and why is anyone lending him any credibility at all?

Nutmog 11y ago

Perhaps being convicted of fraud means his reputation is already damaged so he has little to lose by being in the reputation trap. If he had a clean record, he might keep away from the trap. In the end though, it doesn't really matter if he's wrong but we would suffer a huge loss if he's right but can't get it finished.

justonepost 11y ago

A huge problem is that people think cold fusion is just about the eCat. There's also this thing called Muon catalyzed fusion which was the first type of fusion to be labeled "Cold Fusion". It's a proven phenomenon the DOE provides grants for research into this.

JoeCoder_ 11y ago

[Rossi] "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment Wow, he is literally the villian Captain Planet fought in every single episode.

genericacct 11y ago

You clearly have no idea of what the legislative landscape looks like in italy wrt environmental protection. Results have been duplicated by two independent institutions of which one is the oldest university on the planet. Im guessing professional envy may be the biggest problem Rossi faces..