2 ms·
Right, and there's lots of literature jumping on that and trying to repair it. Yet the original formula outperforms single point estimates. But as I said elsew
by jacques_chester 11y ago
Right, and there's lots of literature jumping on that and trying to repair it. Yet the original formula outperforms single point estimates.
But as I said elsewhere in this thread, my suspicion is that the unpacking effect dominates the "improvement" that's observed and that the particular formula is largely secondary.
- SixSigma 11y agoOh yes, you did say that, sorry. I only responded to your first point and then remembered the second myself. PERT is taught as a time based planning tool but it also has a earned value element. The tools for that have moved on too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management I suppose the unpacking effect does make more sense though, over CPA. "How long will it take?" "6-8 weeks" So what do you put in CPA - 6, 7, 8 ? PERT says 7.