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The typical PERT three point distribution is better than assuming the mean, but does have a few drawbacks when modeling joint probable outcomes. I honestly can'
by netghost 11y ago
The typical PERT three point distribution is better than assuming the mean, but does have a few drawbacks when modeling joint probable outcomes. I honestly can't remember if it over our under represents the optimistic or pessimistic result.
The other quirk is that it breaks down when you map from effort or work to duration, the actual time something takes when you factor in availability, interruptions, communication costs, etc.
- _paulc 11y agoI think that the real value is in forcing people to think about optimistic vs worst case estimates - in my experience the initial estimate is almost always actually the optimistic number and when they start to think about risks people tend to become much more conservative.