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Bostrom's predictions about when human level AI will arrive are mainly based on surveys of computer scientists e.g. http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/ai-risk
by BenjaminTodd 11y ago
Bostrom's predictions about when human level AI will arrive are mainly based on surveys of computer scientists e.g.
http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/ai-risk/ai-timelines http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/ai-risk/ai-timelines
- vonnik 11y agoAn AGI has been 20 years away for the last 80 years, in the opinion of many computer scientists. The reason why these prediction have little value is the same reason why software is delivered late: the people involved often don't know the problems that need to be solved. In the case of AGI, the nature and complexity of the problems is greater than a simple CRUD app.