The logic of averages works like this: Girls are more likely to prefer pink than blue. My niece is a girl. Therefore she is more likely to prefer pink.

The logic of averages works like this: Girls are more likely to prefer pink than blue. My niece is a girl. Therefore she is more likely to prefer pink. So it seems to stand. However, my niece is also Italian, and Italians are more likely to prefer blue to pink. She is also vegetarian and vegetarians are more likely to prefer green to either blue or pink. (I'm making all these stats up in case that wasn't obvious). So which colour toy should I buy for my niece? Humans are complex. They can't be reduced to simple 'this one or that one' probabilities based on a single factor.